{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28beb342-4be2-4d9c-a7b7-a750a89aebd4", "symbol": "UAA", "name": "Under Armour, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 38.583, "architecture_energy": 64.815, "architecture_maturity": 12.524, "architecture_confidence": 71.517, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.93, "rotation_up": 73.09, "upward_expansion": 63.89, "deceleration": 21.74, "rotation_down": 16.64, "downward_expansion": 22.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 122.653334, 118.491636, 112.038476, 111.405333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 118.0, "trend_reference": 111.684333, "distance_from_trend": 0.056549, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 127.482757, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.074385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.506149, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088873, "excess_performance": -0.034207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056549, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089221, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.074385, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074581, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.135061, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.212199, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.098257, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37, "relative_activity": 0.027163, "balance": 1.098257, "dry_up": 1.058437, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067386, "annualized_volatility": 0.51616, "from_high_reference": -0.144928, "from_low_reference": 0.536458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.684333, "fair_value_reference": 127.482757, "structural_low": 84.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001976, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.031942, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.2722, "worst_return": -0.096595, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03055, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028521, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.52027, "worst_return": -0.205534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083875, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083055, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168959, "worst_return": -0.274486, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.286216, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.380815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.237685, "worst_return": -0.605866, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095946, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.138047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.049627, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.253462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005236, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.355599, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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98.541334, 101.204, 105.993953, 106.102366 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 104.620003, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": 2358.45, "trend": 103.477667, "fair_value": 128.151859, "relative_strength": -5.496943, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.955435, "energy": 27.111729, "activity_lines": [ 100.306668, 101.514546, 105.443858, 106.214237 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 103.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2252.2, "trend": 104.244333, "fair_value": 128.004551, "relative_strength": -5.739721, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.443577, "energy": 13.986053, "activity_lines": [ 101.890668, 101.537455, 104.767, 106.18342 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 103.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1783.6, "trend": 104.844333, "fair_value": 127.869936, "relative_strength": -4.252803, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.151188, "energy": 13.806145, "activity_lines": [ 102.570001, 101.596728, 104.114619, 106.10314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 115.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1698.15, "trend": 105.884333, "fair_value": 127.813526, "relative_strength": 8.217456, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.213734, "energy": 24.324868, "activity_lines": [ 106.849333, 103.956, 104.750381, 106.771247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 119.0, "volume": 3614, "typical_volume": 1232.45, "trend": 107.184333, "fair_value": 127.755833, "relative_strength": 13.550732, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.964762, "energy": 40.777795, "activity_lines": [ 111.694666, 106.866182, 105.785191, 107.617419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 127.900002, "volume": 3625, "typical_volume": 1345.1, "trend": 108.714333, "fair_value": 127.70391, "relative_strength": 22.320323, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.370005, "energy": 73.436698, "activity_lines": [ 118.006667, 111.185455, 107.758096, 108.953914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 125.0, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 1361.95, "trend": 110.144333, "fair_value": 127.652628, "relative_strength": 20.695242, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.322494, "energy": 71.157009, "activity_lines": [ 121.8, 114.652, 109.445524, 110.004602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 125.0, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 1361.4, "trend": 111.144333, "fair_value": 127.575705, "relative_strength": 20.158654, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 42.868896, "energy": 74.002276, "activity_lines": [ 124.126667, 117.471818, 111.094857, 110.963032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 118.0, "volume": 37, "typical_volume": 1362.15, "trend": 111.684333, "fair_value": 127.482757, "relative_strength": 13.506149, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.582718, "energy": 64.815158, "activity_lines": [ 122.653334, 118.491636, 112.038476, 111.405333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }