{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28c11f76-d816-4772-beb8-80d36eec8ffe", "symbol": "VRSK", "name": "Verisk Analytics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.959, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 20.754, "architecture_energy": 40.277, "architecture_maturity": 5.597, "architecture_confidence": 55.782, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.98, "rotation_up": 60.55, "upward_expansion": 49.55, "deceleration": 20.53, "rotation_down": 16.15, "downward_expansion": 22.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 195.284667, 191.624585, 185.087389, 185.207669 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 191.82, "trend_reference": 188.066551, "distance_from_trend": 0.019958, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 243.961595, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.213729, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.091844, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076658, "excess_performance": -0.110796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019958, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.213729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0926, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200918, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.20517, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076658, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.199117, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6447848, "relative_activity": 0.614082, "balance": 1.199117, "dry_up": 0.821771, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078208, "annualized_volatility": 0.393228, "from_high_reference": -0.299149, "from_low_reference": 0.233497 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 188.066551, "fair_value_reference": 243.961595, "structural_low": 155.509131, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061054, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.014458, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.076074, "worst_return": -0.173887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.026179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01234, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.108596, "worst_return": -0.159961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.020387, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.05121, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159, "worst_return": -0.214976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"down", "direction": 14.211855, "energy": 23.107769, "activity_lines": [ 189.878, 184.880673, 181.156008, 184.023111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 201.34, "volume": 7225510, "typical_volume": 10346987.05, "trend": 189.962745, "fair_value": 244.398593, "relative_strength": -13.369701, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.878224, "energy": 48.296079, "activity_lines": [ 194.964667, 188.721317, 182.926207, 184.718748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 194.85, "volume": 12569520, "typical_volume": 10599918.5, "trend": 189.128979, "fair_value": 244.205218, "relative_strength": -15.641118, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.458296, "energy": 44.816776, "activity_lines": [ 196.052, 190.668522, 184.137241, 185.034055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 191.82, "volume": 6447848, "typical_volume": 10499983.95, "trend": 188.066551, "fair_value": 243.961595, "relative_strength": -20.091844, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.754465, "energy": 40.277288, "activity_lines": [ 195.284667, 191.624585, 185.087389, 185.207669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }