{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28c62321-0511-492f-8490-1b840a52f4b7", "symbol": "EML", "name": "EML Payments Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.831, "architecture_energy": 63.061, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.95, "rotation_up": 29.77, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.54, "rotation_down": 52.63, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.320667, 0.322, 0.346524, 0.402344 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.315, "trend_reference": 0.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.37, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.852564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.630526, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.327242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.585526, "excess_performance": -0.649232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.37, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.262899, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.630526, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.563272, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.585526, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.345494, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2752048, "relative_activity": 0.342594, "balance": 0.345494, "dry_up": 0.573129, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117216, "annualized_volatility": 0.671369, "from_high_reference": -0.724891, "from_low_reference": 0.105263 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5, "fair_value_reference": 0.852564, "structural_low": 0.285, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.324324, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.060162, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.353383, "worst_return": -0.450172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.108527, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.114306, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.426087, "worst_return": -0.649485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.153439, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.181225, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.062992, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.325, "volume": 7379282, "typical_volume": 9136875.45, "trend": 0.558833, "fair_value": 0.86141, "relative_strength": -55.52057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.330526, "energy": 64.957869, "activity_lines": [ 0.328, 0.333818, 0.374429, 0.445419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.31, "volume": 2342962, "typical_volume": 8553728.2, "trend": 0.539333, "fair_value": 0.858526, "relative_strength": -56.492282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.450131, "energy": 64.879943, "activity_lines": [ 0.324667, 0.327455, 0.363024, 0.429366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.325, "volume": 5941427, "typical_volume": 8188379.95, "trend": 0.5195, "fair_value": 0.855513, "relative_strength": -54.459733, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.851983, "energy": 57.331776, "activity_lines": [ 0.325333, 0.325273, 0.3545, 0.415538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.315, "volume": 2752048, "typical_volume": 8032976.85, "trend": 0.5, "fair_value": 0.852564, "relative_strength": -56.327242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.831207, "energy": 63.061494, "activity_lines": [ 0.320667, 0.322, 0.346524, 0.402344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }