{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28d57969-651a-42c5-8e82-e9467d523ceb", "symbol": "STO3", "name": "Sto SE & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.437, "architecture_energy": 28.388, "architecture_maturity": 97.012, "architecture_confidence": 85.327, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.93, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 16.14, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 31.73, "downward_expansion": 63.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.9, 95.441692, 96.866808, 99.801457 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 96.0, "trend_reference": 104.373941, "distance_from_trend": -0.08023, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 118.364238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.188944, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.627918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214614, "excess_performance": -0.279253, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08023, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.188944, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015906, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.196279, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214614, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19446, "relative_activity": 2.163612, "balance": 0.619422, "dry_up": 1.213457, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043925, "annualized_volatility": 0.209431, "from_high_reference": -0.260262, "from_low_reference": 0.051479 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.373941, "fair_value_reference": 118.364238, "structural_low": 91.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.014754, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.023298, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.18169, "worst_return": -0.116197, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001269, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.009033, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.14, "worst_return": -0.182131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.147761, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.295518, "worst_return": -0.181092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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107.155389, "fair_value": 119.332037, "relative_strength": -19.842455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.095527, "energy": 69.940638, "activity_lines": [ 94.058014, 95.476821, 98.544286, 102.378465 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 97.0, "volume": 7604, "typical_volume": 9165.15, "trend": 106.501255, "fair_value": 119.061625, "relative_strength": -15.32278, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.941479, "energy": 52.664065, "activity_lines": [ 94.74, 95.593097, 98.068518, 101.723279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.0, "volume": 10024, "typical_volume": 9029.8, "trend": 105.799794, "fair_value": 118.786578, "relative_strength": -17.539602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.665528, "energy": 47.284623, "activity_lines": [ 94.8, 95.350889, 97.508615, 100.981263 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 96.6, "volume": 6551, "typical_volume": 8641.25, "trend": 105.087197, "fair_value": 118.547513, "relative_strength": -17.432951, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.388934, "energy": 36.294143, "activity_lines": [ 95.573333, 95.43759, 97.191171, 100.387728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 96.0, "volume": 19446, "typical_volume": 8987.75, "trend": 104.373941, "fair_value": 118.364238, "relative_strength": -19.627918, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.436762, "energy": 28.387581, "activity_lines": [ 95.9, 95.441692, 96.866808, 99.801457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }