{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28d6a2d6-2c0d-4ce1-ada0-d02a1a319f98", "symbol": "ARCO", "name": "Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 56.67, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.715, "architecture_energy": 18.37, "architecture_maturity": 28.241, "architecture_confidence": 55.293, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.88, "rotation_up": 20.85, "upward_expansion": 16.91, "deceleration": 55.85, "rotation_down": 46.58, "downward_expansion": 44.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.230667, 8.283804, 8.398022, 8.38816 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.24, "trend_reference": 8.332754, "distance_from_trend": -0.011131, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.467599, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.434175, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.02775, "excess_performance": -0.153375, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011131, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043954, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074408, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116841, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.02775, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.782054, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4892501, "relative_activity": 0.823573, "balance": 0.782054, "dry_up": 0.859842, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074649, "annualized_volatility": 0.334906, "from_high_reference": -0.147744, "from_low_reference": 0.281742 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.332754, "fair_value_reference": 8.467599, "structural_low": 7.41455, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.034454, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000571, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.144189, "worst_return": -0.098573, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.056857, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.050839, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.231446, "worst_return": -0.178201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.09778, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.057483, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.209765, "worst_return": -0.2464, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.213502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176073, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06013, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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8.321233, 8.382996, 8.454167, 8.403125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.22, "volume": 5345947, "typical_volume": 5974330.85, "trend": 8.286996, "fair_value": 8.491953, "relative_strength": -1.174, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.44975, "energy": 13.699239, "activity_lines": [ 8.279333, 8.350594, 8.438351, 8.400769 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.17, "volume": 4759035, "typical_volume": 5984047.0, "trend": 8.318455, "fair_value": 8.480502, "relative_strength": -2.934897, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.863042, "energy": 17.238266, "activity_lines": [ 8.238, 8.306228, 8.416109, 8.393221 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.24, "volume": 4892501, "typical_volume": 5940580.2, "trend": 8.332754, "fair_value": 8.467599, "relative_strength": -5.434175, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.714528, "energy": 18.369517, "activity_lines": [ 8.230667, 8.283804, 8.398022, 8.38816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }