{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28d6a84d-0901-44f2-899f-8519d59f65b9", "symbol": "S2HO34", "name": "Shopify Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 64.367, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 45.578, "architecture_energy": 50.513, "architecture_maturity": 21.501, "architecture_confidence": 74.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.25, "rotation_up": 65.95, "upward_expansion": 51.07, "deceleration": 19.49, "rotation_down": 18.32, "downward_expansion": 26.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.463333, 5.246182, 5.026905, 5.031462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.4, "trend_reference": 5.145667, "distance_from_trend": 0.243765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.53109, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.412464, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.175434, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.298174, "excess_performance": 0.355223, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.243765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12155, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.412464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.380009, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021754, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.399013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.298174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.515783, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 149976, "relative_activity": 0.996624, "balance": 1.515783, "dry_up": 1.802041, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08774, "annualized_volatility": 0.644304, "from_high_reference": -0.211823, "from_low_reference": 0.641026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.145667, "fair_value_reference": 4.53109, "structural_low": 3.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049419, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.047307, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069492, "worst_return": -0.116564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.201695, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126595, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.686047, "worst_return": 0.079755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.503067, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.485367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.569767, "worst_return": 0.181356, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"relative_strength": -18.244651, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.192176, "energy": 18.202592, "activity_lines": [ 5.154, 4.964727, 4.893143, 5.008624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8, "volume": 403034, "typical_volume": 140459.6, "trend": 5.251667, "fair_value": 4.488141, "relative_strength": -25.069163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.062524, "energy": 15.898728, "activity_lines": [ 5.070667, 4.964727, 4.878857, 4.972688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.94, "volume": 281290, "typical_volume": 145309.45, "trend": 5.177333, "fair_value": 4.504487, "relative_strength": -24.066436, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.901529, "energy": 10.130596, "activity_lines": [ 5.019333, 4.978364, 4.882238, 4.952581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.4, "volume": 149976, "typical_volume": 150484.05, "trend": 5.145667, "fair_value": 4.53109, "relative_strength": 2.175434, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.578127, "energy": 50.513025, "activity_lines": [ 5.463333, 5.246182, 5.026905, 5.031462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }