{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28dd6e98-586d-40e4-b493-2e7b88ebd1f3", "symbol": "AVON", "name": "Avon Technologies Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.293, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.962, "architecture_energy": 24.479, "architecture_maturity": 20.583, "architecture_confidence": 61.844, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.91, "rotation_up": 49.11, "upward_expansion": 42.25, "deceleration": 27.07, "rotation_down": 27.51, "downward_expansion": 24.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 1775.150947, 1753.625804, 1732.79871, 1735.202617 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1896.0, "trend_reference": 1751.840369, "distance_from_trend": 0.08229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1437.018238, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.319399, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.430621, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139423, "excess_performance": 0.088188, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018324, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.319399, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10119, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139423, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.688183, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1099313, "relative_activity": 3.595141, "balance": 1.688183, "dry_up": 1.414578, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074942, "annualized_volatility": 0.333259, "from_high_reference": -0.130211, "from_low_reference": 0.300412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1751.840369, "fair_value_reference": 1437.018238, "structural_low": 1458.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.047368, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.039178, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.140763, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.119439, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.113527, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.231767, "worst_return": -0.249615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.065672, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.100331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.546431, "worst_return": -0.356467, 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{ "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1896.0, "volume": 1099313, "typical_volume": 305777.45, "trend": 1751.840369, "fair_value": 1437.018238, "relative_strength": -4.430621, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.962268, "energy": 24.479182, "activity_lines": [ 1775.150947, 1753.625804, 1732.79871, 1735.202617 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }