{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28df76b8-9d39-4855-8e22-1363aa30ba33", "symbol": "000885", "name": "CEVIA Enviro Inc.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.471, "architecture_energy": 20.786, "architecture_maturity": 85.67, "architecture_confidence": 75.77, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.75, "rotation_up": 26.95, "upward_expansion": 19.31, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 57.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.706, 12.591207, 12.766952, 13.00049 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.86, "trend_reference": 13.304527, "distance_from_trend": -0.033412, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.526826, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.026597, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.583457, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087943, "excess_performance": -0.095343, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036461, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.026597, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105835, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107059, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087943, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.604119, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24670337, "relative_activity": 1.130247, "balance": 0.604119, "dry_up": 1.188583, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040293, "annualized_volatility": 0.18348, "from_high_reference": -0.195244, "from_low_reference": 0.063689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.304527, "fair_value_reference": 12.526826, "structural_low": 12.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.028621, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019934, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.106996, "worst_return": -0.04736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.142058, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.088572, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.32722, "worst_return": -0.054079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.184145, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.219108, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.302013, "worst_return": -0.090014, "sufficient": true }, { 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.27, "volume": 18610685, "typical_volume": 23945504.65, "trend": 13.443527, "fair_value": 12.519879, "relative_strength": -21.077646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.030237, "energy": 74.762267, "activity_lines": [ 12.392667, 12.571273, 12.947443, 13.18583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.35, "volume": 26793954, "typical_volume": 23858603.65, "trend": 13.40386, "fair_value": 12.518751, "relative_strength": -12.14834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.669655, "energy": 62.990112, "activity_lines": [ 12.346667, 12.491778, 12.860082, 13.11528 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.52, "volume": 28752697, "typical_volume": 23159044.9, "trend": 13.362193, "fair_value": 12.51878, "relative_strength": -10.748676, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.32266, "energy": 50.0602, "activity_lines": [ 12.392667, 12.467899, 12.797388, 13.058257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.94, "volume": 23557719, "typical_volume": 22178507.7, "trend": 13.333193, "fair_value": 12.523029, "relative_strength": -5.842562, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.292973, "energy": 33.36431, "activity_lines": [ 12.584667, 12.535653, 12.782265, 13.031019 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.86, "volume": 24670337, "typical_volume": 21827393.95, "trend": 13.304527, "fair_value": 12.526826, "relative_strength": -10.583457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.470654, "energy": 20.786253, "activity_lines": [ 12.706, 12.591207, 12.766952, 13.00049 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }