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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.578, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.545, "architecture_energy": 90.39, "architecture_maturity": 2.363, "architecture_confidence": 66.71, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.16, "rotation_up": 81.89, "upward_expansion": 97.08, "deceleration": 41.98, "rotation_down": 9.41, "downward_expansion": 21.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 99.951727, 99.866322, 99.797282, 99.713523 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 100.015, "trend_reference": 99.563759, "distance_from_trend": 0.004532, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 98.043403, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.020109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.385471, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.008832, "excess_performance": -0.151327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004532, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004189, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.020109, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00936, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.008832, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.204897, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211136, "relative_activity": 1.102034, "balance": 2.204897, "dry_up": 1.0043, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001101, "annualized_volatility": 0.003028, "from_high_reference": -0.00045, "from_low_reference": 0.027381 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.563759, "fair_value_reference": 98.043403, "structural_low": 99.10467, 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null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 99.918488, "volume": 163603, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 99.996675, "volume": 207926, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 100.015, "volume": 211136, "typical_volume": 191587.5, "trend": 99.563759, "fair_value": 98.043403, "relative_strength": -7.385471, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.54451, "energy": 90.38973, "activity_lines": [ 99.951727, 99.866322, 99.797282, 99.713523 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }