{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28f33b67-4e46-47ed-b539-7ae479b8cf48", "symbol": "VIPCLOTHNG", "name": "VIP Clothing Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -41.615, "architecture_energy": 58.668, "architecture_maturity": 10.015, "architecture_confidence": 73.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.91, "rotation_up": 16.17, "upward_expansion": 19.16, "deceleration": 44.74, "rotation_down": 70.21, "downward_expansion": 58.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.418, 22.601273, 23.463143, 23.029355 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.73, "trend_reference": 23.038, "distance_from_trend": -0.100182, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 37.443333, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.446363, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.529425, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174433, "excess_performance": -0.130723, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100182, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.120161, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.446363, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02158, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174433, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.362682, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221363, "relative_activity": 0.28834, "balance": 1.362682, "dry_up": 0.283675, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096516, "annualized_volatility": 0.618779, "from_high_reference": -0.496845, "from_low_reference": 0.475445 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.038, "fair_value_reference": 37.443333, "structural_low": 14.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.071842, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.026157, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.282716, "worst_return": 0.000588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048249, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084589, "worst_return": -0.054677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.035921, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.105484, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.071521, "worst_return": -0.449544, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.059142, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022052, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.183398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010576, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004441, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113098, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 43.150002, "volume": 477649, "typical_volume": 1922472.95, "trend": 44.568333, "fair_value": 26.457692, "relative_strength": -4.339863, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.365388, "energy": 30.50726, "activity_lines": [ 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24.017952, 23.675269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.07, "volume": 396478, "typical_volume": 949069.9, "trend": 24.039667, "fair_value": 37.885769, "relative_strength": -21.759236, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.042827, "energy": 15.572305, "activity_lines": [ 23.716, 24.455636, 23.962905, 23.525312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.370001, "volume": 117840, "typical_volume": 874717.95, "trend": 23.706, "fair_value": 37.737821, "relative_strength": -21.476842, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.947646, "energy": 29.366593, "activity_lines": [ 22.780667, 23.782, 23.831286, 23.353075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.33, "volume": 135444, "typical_volume": 820597.45, "trend": 23.371667, "fair_value": 37.59218, "relative_strength": -22.722484, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.231893, "energy": 45.245049, "activity_lines": [ 22.073333, 23.208, 23.683191, 23.199785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.73, "volume": 221363, "typical_volume": 767713.9, "trend": 23.038, "fair_value": 37.443333, "relative_strength": -24.529425, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.615188, "energy": 58.668248, "activity_lines": [ 21.418, 22.601273, 23.463143, 23.029355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }