{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28fcbfad-b8e7-4ef3-8834-ed20c059eed0", "symbol": "6026", "name": "Grand Fortune Securities Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.645, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 5.417, "architecture_energy": 15.725, "architecture_maturity": 13.24, "architecture_confidence": 76.192, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.58, "rotation_up": 19.39, "upward_expansion": 43.29, "deceleration": 79.39, "rotation_down": 43.03, "downward_expansion": 37.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.31, 14.659087, 14.892962, 14.632662 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.65, "trend_reference": 14.256237, "distance_from_trend": 0.02762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.3664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.288887, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.974006, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.105215, "excess_performance": -0.336157, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02762, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088058, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.288887, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00242, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16974, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.105215, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173017, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5929527, "relative_activity": 0.390274, "balance": 1.173017, "dry_up": 0.411126, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088189, "annualized_volatility": 0.414076, "from_high_reference": -0.183102, "from_low_reference": 0.425924 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.256237, "fair_value_reference": 11.3664, "structural_low": 11.925223, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.006531, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.031964, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.138756, "worst_return": -0.134921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.022108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.094559, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.29321, "worst_return": -0.208995, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013875, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192488, "worst_return": -0.073529, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 14.496667, 15.004222, 14.946394, 14.605873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.1, "volume": 4543585, "typical_volume": 15236373.9, "trend": 14.200575, "fair_value": 11.339681, "relative_strength": -17.709602, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.853576, "energy": 18.702244, "activity_lines": [ 14.246667, 14.769319, 14.894734, 14.603666 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.65, "volume": 5929527, "typical_volume": 15193237.25, "trend": 14.256237, "fair_value": 11.3664, "relative_strength": -16.974006, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.417461, "energy": 15.725315, "activity_lines": [ 14.31, 14.659087, 14.892962, 14.632662 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }