{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28fce823-8fd3-4567-9a21-68a3b5ab0ee1", "symbol": "V3AB", "name": "Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) Accumulating", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.948, "architecture_energy": 37.161, "architecture_maturity": 64.662, "architecture_confidence": 90.278, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.35, "rotation_up": 36.78, "upward_expansion": 60.0, "deceleration": 88.29, "rotation_down": 27.4, "downward_expansion": 21.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.473067, 6.483155, 6.419212, 6.285008 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.627, "trend_reference": 6.128217, "distance_from_trend": 0.081391, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.122825, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293622, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.110192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137097, "excess_performance": 0.085861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081391, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293622, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020447, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.031102, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022628, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.352891, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1155363, "relative_activity": 1.072895, "balance": 2.352891, "dry_up": 0.923777, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025745, "annualized_volatility": 0.143918, "from_high_reference": -0.016036, "from_low_reference": 0.241476 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.128217, "fair_value_reference": 5.122825, "structural_low": 5.351, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0364, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.013378, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.001465, "worst_return": -0.092679, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.012466, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.004426, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.07861, "worst_return": 0.003582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.094395, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.075251, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123501, "worst_return": 0.070832, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.173804, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020259, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.176126, "worst_return": 0.171481, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034642, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007063, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066102, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096874, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040507, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.072133, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003036, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02059, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016879, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": 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6.157091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.52, "volume": 1393559, "typical_volume": 1054832.35, "trend": 6.045233, "fair_value": 5.061718, "relative_strength": 5.519321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.651397, "energy": 76.151168, "activity_lines": [ 6.5344, 6.500736, 6.319117, 6.189323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.389, "volume": 976538, "typical_volume": 1069350.85, "trend": 6.0651, "fair_value": 5.076599, "relative_strength": 2.339022, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.495057, "energy": 53.518452, "activity_lines": [ 6.488433, 6.488, 6.342452, 6.211501 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.409, "volume": 920235, "typical_volume": 1064885.5, "trend": 6.085733, "fair_value": 5.091345, "relative_strength": 1.326626, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.431383, "energy": 42.146855, "activity_lines": [ 6.452467, 6.476536, 6.365583, 6.233688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.359, "volume": 926999, "typical_volume": 1066550.8, "trend": 6.104817, "fair_value": 5.106058, "relative_strength": -0.695317, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.253247, "energy": 28.474923, "activity_lines": [ 6.413533, 6.455164, 6.381186, 6.251318 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.627, "volume": 1155363, "typical_volume": 1076865.35, "trend": 6.128217, "fair_value": 5.122825, "relative_strength": 3.110192, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.948037, "energy": 37.160699, "activity_lines": [ 6.473067, 6.483155, 6.419212, 6.285008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }