{ "ticker": { "uuid": "28fd840a-3987-448e-901c-7abc49e9c0ee", "symbol": "XPOF", "name": "Xponential Fitness Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.547, "architecture_energy": 31.91, "architecture_maturity": 32.613, "architecture_confidence": 70.364, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.5, "rotation_up": 14.53, "upward_expansion": 12.54, "deceleration": 57.42, "rotation_down": 56.95, "downward_expansion": 64.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.024, 6.329636, 6.258333, 6.303613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.03, "trend_reference": 6.553, "distance_from_trend": -0.232413, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.948846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.540591, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.41424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411696, "excess_performance": -0.537321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232413, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.540591, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005395, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.364142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -2.5e-05, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731346, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12227709, "relative_activity": 3.806679, "balance": 0.731346, "dry_up": 1.762661, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17738, "annualized_volatility": 1.246449, "from_high_reference": -0.464324, "from_low_reference": 0.313316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.553, "fair_value_reference": 10.948846, "structural_low": 3.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.017826, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.041867, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.231308, "worst_return": -0.405213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.152879, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.192287, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.247836, "worst_return": -0.399533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.314924, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.359683, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.003934, "worst_return": -0.327804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.32, "volume": 3544797, "typical_volume": 2747198.6, "trend": 6.712333, "fair_value": 11.136346, "relative_strength": -18.354709, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.165742, "energy": 11.35177, "activity_lines": [ 6.626667, 6.553455, 6.359524, 6.421333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.52, "volume": 3705347, "typical_volume": 2738754.35, "trend": 6.662333, "fair_value": 11.052436, "relative_strength": -15.438983, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.53234, "energy": 11.068358, "activity_lines": [ 6.556, 6.584364, 6.381714, 6.408925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.03, "volume": 12227709, "typical_volume": 3212172.3, "trend": 6.553, "fair_value": 10.948846, "relative_strength": -36.41424, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.547016, "energy": 31.909884, "activity_lines": [ 6.024, 6.329636, 6.258333, 6.303613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }