{ "ticker": { "uuid": "290288eb-dc55-45af-9b9f-f7ab17755bb4", "symbol": "SHOW3", "name": "T4F Entretenimento S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 71.764, "architecture_energy": 61.884, "architecture_maturity": 35.177, "architecture_confidence": 86.961, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.31, "rotation_up": 63.22, "upward_expansion": 86.53, "deceleration": 62.08, "rotation_down": 22.26, "downward_expansion": 10.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.016, 5.965636, 5.854333, 5.703419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.06, "trend_reference": 5.589333, "distance_from_trend": 0.084208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.640833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.479419, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.636508, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072566, "excess_performance": 0.129615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.084208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.479419, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102715, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006365, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.218452, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072566, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.124845, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 146600, "relative_activity": 0.824383, "balance": 4.124845, "dry_up": 1.742254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025895, "annualized_volatility": 0.493954, "from_high_reference": -0.139205, "from_low_reference": 0.415888 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.589333, "fair_value_reference": 11.640833, "structural_low": 4.28, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.108844, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.085534, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.072993, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.237937, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.154907, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.171533, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.507488, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.350019, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.237226, "worst_return": -0.626984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.082353, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.539474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.097183, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.201923, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 74.342977, "energy": 88.397877, "activity_lines": [ 5.916667, 5.844364, 5.695667, 5.598301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.85, "volume": 197000, "typical_volume": 165270.0, "trend": 5.587667, "fair_value": 12.097628, "relative_strength": -5.56212, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.907551, "energy": 81.712844, "activity_lines": [ 5.906, 5.856, 5.730333, 5.615656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.03, "volume": 734200, "typical_volume": 183300.0, "trend": 5.596667, "fair_value": 11.939487, "relative_strength": -2.126744, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.520059, "energy": 82.544079, "activity_lines": [ 5.946667, 5.895818, 5.775952, 5.644194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.05, "volume": 161500, "typical_volume": 181490.0, "trend": 5.595333, "fair_value": 11.790449, "relative_strength": -3.267471, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.661883, "energy": 62.475226, "activity_lines": [ 5.984667, 5.932364, 5.816905, 5.673441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.06, "volume": 146600, "typical_volume": 177830.0, "trend": 5.589333, "fair_value": 11.640833, "relative_strength": 0.636508, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.764089, "energy": 61.884274, "activity_lines": [ 6.016, 5.965636, 5.854333, 5.703419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }