{ "ticker": { "uuid": "290dd2ae-98dd-4714-a269-be1dfb96a033", "symbol": "002946", "name": "New Hope Dairy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.784, "architecture_energy": 23.56, "architecture_maturity": 74.87, "architecture_confidence": 76.058, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.06, "rotation_up": 37.32, "upward_expansion": 20.3, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 24.46, "downward_expansion": 56.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.521333, 15.835697, 16.279178, 16.799291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.629999, "trend_reference": 17.475345, "distance_from_trend": -0.048374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.233579, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.168364, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.481632, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.085762, "excess_performance": -0.093161, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03617, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.168364, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.129182, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084816, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088131, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.085762, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49868763, "relative_activity": 1.794473, "balance": 0.722016, "dry_up": 1.785569, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106379, "annualized_volatility": 0.531026, "from_high_reference": -0.176733, "from_low_reference": 0.288149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.475345, "fair_value_reference": 14.233579, "structural_low": 12.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.004941, "positive_rate": 0.518519, "directional_follow_through": 0.481481, "median_excess_return": 0.001854, "regime_survival": 0.814815, "best_return": 0.18929, "worst_return": -0.141076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.040204, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021793, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.304541, "worst_return": -0.197263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.018396, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.075126, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.582827, "worst_return": -0.265291, "sufficient": true }, 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-10.67246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.514287, "energy": 65.222454, "activity_lines": [ 14.736, 15.288001, 16.331881, 16.957975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.43, "volume": 37335634, "typical_volume": 27120001.8, "trend": 17.553874, "fair_value": 14.192072, "relative_strength": -12.402063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.343376, "energy": 44.686855, "activity_lines": [ 15.001333, 15.214519, 16.173345, 16.813495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.24, "volume": 68527216, "typical_volume": 27704975.9, "trend": 17.536297, "fair_value": 14.21962, "relative_strength": 5.299081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.223143, "energy": 13.274497, "activity_lines": [ 16.176667, 15.688862, 16.303714, 16.857761 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.629999, "volume": 49868763, "typical_volume": 27790196.7, "trend": 17.475345, "fair_value": 14.233579, "relative_strength": -8.481632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.784466, "energy": 23.559505, "activity_lines": [ 16.521333, 15.835697, 16.279178, 16.799291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }