{ "ticker": { "uuid": "291282fd-7703-4df8-aceb-4233246903bb", "symbol": "300686", "name": "Shenzhen CDL Precision Technology Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.019, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.451, "architecture_energy": 69.867, "architecture_maturity": 4.871, "architecture_confidence": 72.391, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.23, "rotation_up": 8.61, "upward_expansion": 15.31, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 72.51, "downward_expansion": 88.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.138667, 14.534364, 15.812238, 16.027075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.61, "trend_reference": 16.191, "distance_from_trend": -0.035884, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.03141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.41505, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.13355, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000641, "excess_performance": -0.006759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035884, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009939, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.41505, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127226, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000641, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.141256, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101199232, "relative_activity": 1.868864, "balance": 1.141256, "dry_up": 1.198901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.176958, "annualized_volatility": 0.784411, "from_high_reference": -0.266447, "from_low_reference": 0.632845 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.191, "fair_value_reference": 11.03141, "structural_low": 9.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.000877, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.035148, "regime_survival": 0.793103, "best_return": 0.265185, "worst_return": -0.247492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.033336, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.004424, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.640625, "worst_return": -0.181717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.08418, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.002371, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.033987, "worst_return": -0.207136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112311, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.206536, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106264, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.438632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 18.244, 17.862909, 17.505238, 17.070473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.07, "volume": 62776565, "typical_volume": 46388444.7, "trend": 16.494333, "fair_value": 11.005385, "relative_strength": -9.280098, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.577995, "energy": 8.478357, "activity_lines": [ 17.188, 17.378727, 17.327, 16.978731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.5, "volume": 53942177, "typical_volume": 48152378.55, "trend": 16.433333, "fair_value": 11.002949, "relative_strength": -17.377735, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.002571, "energy": 34.450295, "activity_lines": [ 15.453333, 16.476909, 16.905333, 16.721032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.24, "volume": 55389942, "typical_volume": 49399389.8, "trend": 16.310333, "fair_value": 10.998397, "relative_strength": -25.949455, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.723713, "energy": 64.560403, "activity_lines": [ 13.658, 15.455091, 16.37919, 16.385978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.31, "volume": 49151349, "typical_volume": 50477247.25, "trend": 16.172667, "fair_value": 10.999103, "relative_strength": -24.310304, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.753596, "energy": 81.246678, "activity_lines": [ 12.426667, 14.547273, 15.881095, 16.063376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.61, "volume": 101199232, "typical_volume": 54150137.35, "trend": 16.191, "fair_value": 11.03141, "relative_strength": -1.13355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.450857, "energy": 69.867111, "activity_lines": [ 13.138667, 14.534364, 15.812238, 16.027075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }