{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2917100d-269b-4880-9892-9071b10ac81b", "symbol": "MGQE", "name": "Mackenzie GQE Global Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.732, "architecture_energy": 57.536, "architecture_maturity": 80.159, "architecture_confidence": 76.866, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.78, "rotation_up": 52.73, "upward_expansion": 82.77, "deceleration": 68.15, "rotation_down": 28.32, "downward_expansion": 9.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.175333, 33.043272, 32.418309, 31.624086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.779999, "trend_reference": 30.721333, "distance_from_trend": 0.099562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.097291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294387, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.991672, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.134699, "excess_performance": 0.014278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099562, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294387, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052945, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029917, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003274, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.134699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.737146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 107800, "relative_activity": 0.75101, "balance": 2.737146, "dry_up": 0.853943, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026552, "annualized_volatility": 0.14708, "from_high_reference": -0.013435, "from_low_reference": 0.336221 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.721333, "fair_value_reference": 26.097291, "structural_low": 27.24, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.041811, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.027378, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.059627, "worst_return": -0.015389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.089274, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.046064, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.089274, "worst_return": 0.089274, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.630001, "volume": 168600, "typical_volume": 150290.0, "trend": 30.252666, "fair_value": 25.878754, "relative_strength": 2.788566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.350137, "energy": 61.259898, "activity_lines": [ 32.97, 32.720909, 31.808762, 31.090839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.700001, "volume": 87300, "typical_volume": 146930.0, "trend": 30.404667, "fair_value": 25.948358, "relative_strength": 2.655413, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.218406, "energy": 57.006641, "activity_lines": [ 32.879334, 32.767273, 31.989333, 31.248731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.009998, "volume": 126600, "typical_volume": 145100.0, "trend": 30.567333, "fair_value": 26.019688, "relative_strength": 3.981696, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.567658, "energy": 52.029188, "activity_lines": [ 32.921333, 32.846182, 32.178904, 31.416817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.779999, "volume": 107800, "typical_volume": 143540.0, "trend": 30.721333, "fair_value": 26.097291, "relative_strength": 2.991672, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.731588, "energy": 57.535763, "activity_lines": [ 33.175333, 33.043272, 32.418309, 31.624086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }