{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2918ac40-fffd-475f-8320-b01ae953b63c", "symbol": "002451", "name": "Shanghai Morn Electric Equipment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.214, "architecture_energy": 60.543, "architecture_maturity": 78.232, "architecture_confidence": 94.117, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 26.68, "upward_expansion": 11.16, "deceleration": 60.74, "rotation_down": 54.97, "downward_expansion": 84.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.924667, 7.017455, 7.709903, 8.315678 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.22, "trend_reference": 9.138639, "distance_from_trend": -0.209948, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.15362, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.009279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.964591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.29477, "excess_performance": -0.30217, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.209948, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103544, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.009279, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.40467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209646, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161577, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.29477, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.746435, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69299747, "relative_activity": 1.322521, "balance": 0.746435, "dry_up": 1.489039, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094145, "annualized_volatility": 0.322529, "from_high_reference": -0.524121, "from_low_reference": 0.199336 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.138639, "fair_value_reference": 7.15362, "structural_low": 6.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.013781, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.013086, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.329694, "worst_return": -0.157978, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.090416, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.057374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346, "worst_return": -0.14966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.103145, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.106511, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.266, "worst_return": -0.01757, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.89027, "energy": 91.364298, "activity_lines": [ 6.878, 7.343219, 8.194466, 8.777279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.66, "volume": 87969187, "typical_volume": 58847859.95, "trend": 9.350155, "fair_value": 7.148495, "relative_strength": -24.869898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.193502, "energy": 72.775457, "activity_lines": [ 6.747333, 7.130896, 7.983801, 8.596671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.01, "volume": 108256906, "typical_volume": 53253408.8, "trend": 9.235237, "fair_value": 7.149715, "relative_strength": -19.485204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.057275, "energy": 65.636178, "activity_lines": [ 6.798, 7.037091, 7.827265, 8.445693 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.22, "volume": 69299747, "typical_volume": 52399713.55, "trend": 9.138639, "fair_value": 7.15362, "relative_strength": -20.964591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.213652, "energy": 60.542612, "activity_lines": [ 6.924667, 7.017455, 7.709903, 8.315678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }