{ "ticker": { "uuid": "291b08b0-4034-4554-ac97-0a9932bcf133", "symbol": "DRIL", "name": "Drillcon AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.405, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.439, "architecture_energy": 11.642, "architecture_maturity": 17.024, "architecture_confidence": 63.657, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.06, "rotation_up": 26.99, "upward_expansion": 22.77, "deceleration": 30.7, "rotation_down": 33.53, "downward_expansion": 54.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.93, 3.931091, 3.892048, 3.919699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.85, "trend_reference": 3.976667, "distance_from_trend": -0.031852, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.726715, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185481, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.451011, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.116972, "excess_performance": -0.178467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031852, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008416, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13451, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.613555, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 191225, "relative_activity": 1.712636, "balance": 0.613555, "dry_up": 1.024794, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071528, "annualized_volatility": 0.382728, "from_high_reference": -0.153846, "from_low_reference": 0.103152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.976667, "fair_value_reference": 4.726715, "structural_low": 3.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.029908, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.045085, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.1673, "worst_return": -0.167028, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.062556, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.082949, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.197719, "worst_return": -0.267742, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.041872, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.14439, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.208422, "worst_return": -0.321687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.175298, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.189891, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.116105, "worst_return": -0.346868, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062185, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034602, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091954, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113113, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047085, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025974, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.01199, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"trend": 3.970333, "fair_value": 4.746302, "relative_strength": -9.899278, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.988785, "energy": 14.782379, "activity_lines": [ 3.946, 3.892364, 3.881952, 3.924022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 187040, "typical_volume": 108134.6, "trend": 3.977, "fair_value": 4.740776, "relative_strength": -5.045272, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.781998, "energy": 24.304272, "activity_lines": [ 4.019333, 3.943636, 3.902952, 3.934968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.87, "volume": 65144, "typical_volume": 105641.7, "trend": 3.979667, "fair_value": 4.733052, "relative_strength": -11.803827, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.835527, "energy": 10.256199, "activity_lines": [ 3.981333, 3.940182, 3.897143, 3.928065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.85, "volume": 191225, "typical_volume": 111655.35, "trend": 3.976667, "fair_value": 4.726715, "relative_strength": -13.451011, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.439149, "energy": 11.642074, "activity_lines": [ 3.93, 3.931091, 3.892048, 3.919699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }