{ "ticker": { "uuid": "291c24f1-9c5b-49fb-a9f2-1eea79ecee46", "symbol": "SPY3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Long US 500 ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.1, "architecture_energy": 46.755, "architecture_maturity": 62.246, "architecture_confidence": 60.204, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.27, "rotation_up": 47.12, "upward_expansion": 72.5, "deceleration": 70.92, "rotation_down": 27.16, "downward_expansion": 10.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.420666, 27.167636, 26.805095, 25.646279 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.49, "trend_reference": 24.3935, "distance_from_trend": 0.208929, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.833169, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.65366, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.969328, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.306602, "excess_performance": 0.255366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208929, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.65366, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.169693, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.306602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.975194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12413, "relative_activity": 5.027542, "balance": 0.975194, "dry_up": 3.008607, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054725, "annualized_volatility": 0.387115, "from_high_reference": -0.027375, "from_low_reference": 0.680342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.3935, "fair_value_reference": 17.833169, "structural_low": 17.549999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.075434, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061004, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.118207, "worst_return": 0.021988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077447, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.007269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179959, "worst_return": -0.025066, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.325516, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.28339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.390257, "worst_return": 0.260774, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.025005, 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"2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015391, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068622, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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23.661167, "fair_value": 17.30155, "relative_strength": 11.976984, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.909033, "energy": 42.326028, "activity_lines": [ 26.820666, 27.071272, 25.544119, 24.589903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.66, "volume": 452, "typical_volume": 1244.6, "trend": 23.835167, "fair_value": 17.410733, "relative_strength": 15.483094, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.554387, "energy": 46.695655, "activity_lines": [ 27.062666, 27.194909, 25.886285, 24.847892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.68, "volume": 420, "typical_volume": 1235.6, "trend": 23.976167, "fair_value": 17.512239, "relative_strength": 9.934356, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.745879, "energy": 40.418344, "activity_lines": [ 26.966, 27.096545, 26.109738, 25.03143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.32, "volume": 557, "typical_volume": 1167.85, "trend": 24.078833, "fair_value": 17.609996, "relative_strength": 6.820607, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.644223, "energy": 37.661052, "activity_lines": [ 26.763333, 26.931273, 26.277428, 25.182645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.969999, "volume": 16323, "typical_volume": 1906.9, "trend": 24.194833, "fair_value": 17.70865, "relative_strength": 3.799638, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.806553, "energy": 28.450703, "activity_lines": [ 26.51, 26.714363, 26.387738, 25.304656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.49, "volume": 12413, "typical_volume": 2469.0, "trend": 24.3935, "fair_value": 17.833169, "relative_strength": 16.969328, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.100264, "energy": 46.755236, "activity_lines": [ 27.420666, 27.167636, 26.805095, 25.646279 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }