{ "ticker": { "uuid": "291df626-5234-4026-9116-a05916c2c4fd", "symbol": "ALORD", "name": "Ordissimo SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.3, "architecture_energy": 39.165, "architecture_maturity": 30.9, "architecture_confidence": 93.622, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.74, "rotation_up": 18.92, "upward_expansion": 8.37, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 49.64, "downward_expansion": 74.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.443933, 0.450891, 0.461057, 0.473791 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.446, "trend_reference": 0.4881, "distance_from_trend": -0.086253, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.582915, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.132985, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.142308, "excess_performance": -0.195619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086253, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038858, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027921, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070444, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142308, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.83728, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6763, "relative_activity": 0.124614, "balance": 0.83728, "dry_up": 0.857159, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114177, "annualized_volatility": 0.453431, "from_high_reference": -0.271242, "from_low_reference": 0.170604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.4881, "fair_value_reference": 0.582915, "structural_low": 0.398, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.028037, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.034259, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.55, "worst_return": -0.358209, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.03886, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.074257, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.309524, "worst_return": -0.391304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.108688, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.181423, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.011111, "worst_return": -0.457237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.170196, "energy": 30.374782, "activity_lines": [ 0.459, 0.459145, 0.4783, 0.488351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.498, "volume": 33617, "typical_volume": 68117.95, "trend": 0.498, "fair_value": 0.58889, "relative_strength": -5.091808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.714859, "energy": 14.945534, "activity_lines": [ 0.473733, 0.465055, 0.4788, 0.488303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.439, "volume": 75509, "typical_volume": 62845.9, "trend": 0.4969, "fair_value": 0.586992, "relative_strength": -15.674882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.179399, "energy": 20.6013, "activity_lines": [ 0.466, 0.460891, 0.473795, 0.484497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.419, "volume": 67256, "typical_volume": 59624.85, "trend": 0.492533, "fair_value": 0.585447, "relative_strength": -19.241688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.052043, "energy": 30.703914, "activity_lines": [ 0.451, 0.454, 0.467262, 0.479471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.449, "volume": 36549, "typical_volume": 56099.0, "trend": 0.4905, "fair_value": 0.584255, "relative_strength": -14.236218, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.890889, "energy": 27.645754, "activity_lines": [ 0.446933, 0.452491, 0.464152, 0.476662 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.446, "volume": 6763, "typical_volume": 54271.45, "trend": 0.4881, "fair_value": 0.582915, "relative_strength": -16.132985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.300453, "energy": 39.164522, "activity_lines": [ 0.443933, 0.450891, 0.461057, 0.473791 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }