{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2921c398-3133-4fda-9a19-bbee26a3f184", "symbol": "EBON", "name": "Ebang International Holdings", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.291, "architecture_energy": 27.883, "architecture_maturity": 78.351, "architecture_confidence": 92.732, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.68, "rotation_up": 19.17, "upward_expansion": 2.04, "deceleration": 49.24, "rotation_down": 51.66, "downward_expansion": 77.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.9922, 2.025691, 2.09132, 2.150125 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.96, "trend_reference": 2.302597, "distance_from_trend": -0.148787, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.545508, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.646561, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.377351, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.228346, "excess_performance": -0.4158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.148787, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175651, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.646561, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035499, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.443774, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004961, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228346, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.031792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25699, "relative_activity": 0.637468, "balance": 1.031792, "dry_up": 0.508488, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215094, "annualized_volatility": 0.811709, "from_high_reference": -0.667791, "from_low_reference": 0.217391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.302597, "fair_value_reference": 5.545508, "structural_low": 1.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.075049, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.072402, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.845161, "worst_return": -0.604844, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.190265, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.26937, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.528696, "worst_return": -0.483582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.296159, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.307429, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.371134, "worst_return": -0.771657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.494872, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.660039, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 4.257732, "worst_return": -0.905825, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.26417, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033265, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010606, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204797, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.252212, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225434, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.237164, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118802, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108753, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020588, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.414925, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.47, "volume": 66181, "typical_volume": 161504.05, "trend": 7.175387, "fair_value": 71.609453, "relative_strength": -18.625119, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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2.230239 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.021, "volume": 6258, "typical_volume": 38967.65, "trend": 2.393263, "fair_value": 5.62506, "relative_strength": -41.363386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.717247, "energy": 27.622343, "activity_lines": [ 2.028333, 2.069727, 2.125258, 2.203364 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.96, "volume": 33765, "typical_volume": 39502.65, "trend": 2.35193, "fair_value": 5.583393, "relative_strength": -42.522352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.325084, "energy": 27.638203, "activity_lines": [ 2.014267, 2.046527, 2.107015, 2.175411 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.96, "volume": 25699, "typical_volume": 40314.15, "trend": 2.302597, "fair_value": 5.545508, "relative_strength": -44.377351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.290913, "energy": 27.883323, "activity_lines": [ 1.9922, 2.025691, 2.09132, 2.150125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }