{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2921c699-b3ee-4762-957b-926a8e8afc25", "symbol": "NEA", "name": "Nuveen AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 4.478, "architecture_energy": 13.369, "architecture_maturity": 18.685, "architecture_confidence": 69.762, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.88, "rotation_up": 19.78, "upward_expansion": 28.81, "deceleration": 71.2, "rotation_down": 49.21, "downward_expansion": 25.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.363493, 11.425675, 11.415557, 11.388976 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.43, "trend_reference": 11.369841, "distance_from_trend": 0.005291, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.148191, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126309, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.744025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001765, "excess_performance": -0.123859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005291, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009301, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126309, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031699, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.08744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032096, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001765, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.836377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3559974, "relative_activity": 0.888193, "balance": 0.836377, "dry_up": 0.990041, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018073, "annualized_volatility": 0.099207, "from_high_reference": -0.023184, "from_low_reference": 0.125552 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.369841, "fair_value_reference": 10.148191, "structural_low": 10.570695, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.014044, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.010007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0511, "worst_return": -0.092191, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028744, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.04635, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.041791, "worst_return": -0.169486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.054059, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.063049, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.117651, "worst_return": 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3922662, "typical_volume": 4040745.1, "trend": 11.362969, "fair_value": 10.100177, "relative_strength": -4.807711, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.571658, "energy": 47.156733, "activity_lines": [ 11.541423, 11.504028, 11.428399, 11.399615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.23, "volume": 4094464, "typical_volume": 4033400.7, "trend": 11.365597, "fair_value": 10.114649, "relative_strength": -6.492437, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.302474, "energy": 10.552226, "activity_lines": [ 11.436183, 11.463355, 11.415674, 11.391036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.27, "volume": 4295679, "typical_volume": 4037764.4, "trend": 11.36634, "fair_value": 10.130907, "relative_strength": -7.018549, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.390335, "energy": 11.50248, "activity_lines": [ 11.363766, 11.430207, 11.407743, 11.384869 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.43, "volume": 3559974, "typical_volume": 4008109.7, "trend": 11.369841, "fair_value": 10.148191, "relative_strength": -8.744025, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.478333, "energy": 13.369404, "activity_lines": [ 11.363493, 11.425675, 11.415557, 11.388976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }