{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2921f310-82cb-4bea-95f7-9048a8ca02b5", "symbol": "ATEC", "name": "Alphatec Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.51, "architecture_energy": 22.035, "architecture_maturity": 94.731, "architecture_confidence": 59.975, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.55, "rotation_up": 24.62, "upward_expansion": 19.97, "deceleration": 52.3, "rotation_down": 32.61, "downward_expansion": 55.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.070667, 8.997727, 8.917357, 9.552054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.31, "trend_reference": 10.7895, "distance_from_trend": -0.137124, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.049968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.227384, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.14339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.326339, "excess_performance": -0.513792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137124, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269936, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.227384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.179836, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.421434, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151384, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.326339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.776337, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20300091, "relative_activity": 1.345232, "balance": 1.776337, "dry_up": 0.818473, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107122, "annualized_volatility": 0.626039, "from_high_reference": -0.600258, "from_low_reference": 0.365103 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.7895, "fair_value_reference": 12.049968, "structural_low": 6.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.022317, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.004138, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.451499, "worst_return": -0.473877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00502, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.071192, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.518841, "worst_return": -0.325733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.063223, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.155305, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.860304, "worst_return": -0.293945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229607, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.152006, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110828, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", 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-42.398803, "energy": 26.672218, "activity_lines": [ 9.011, 8.758909, 9.066333, 10.054333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.26, "volume": 8953011, "typical_volume": 14916899.5, "trend": 11.608833, "fair_value": 12.126891, "relative_strength": -46.877331, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.706995, "energy": 33.294341, "activity_lines": [ 8.754667, 8.713364, 8.926357, 9.810957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.52, "volume": 9782767, "typical_volume": 14620691.65, "trend": 11.234167, "fair_value": 12.085801, "relative_strength": -38.530287, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.546395, "energy": 23.85887, "activity_lines": [ 8.955, 8.886, 8.925286, 9.676194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.31, "volume": 20300091, "typical_volume": 15090403.4, "trend": 10.7895, "fair_value": 12.049968, "relative_strength": -42.14339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.510283, "energy": 22.035125, "activity_lines": [ 9.070667, 8.997727, 8.917357, 9.552054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }