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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 78.9, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.074, "architecture_energy": 17.237, "architecture_maturity": 77.13, "architecture_confidence": 59.039, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.23, "rotation_up": 34.63, "upward_expansion": 19.45, "deceleration": 42.04, "rotation_down": 20.83, "downward_expansion": 53.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 199.383336, 197.264547, 198.416383, 200.487926 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 202.300003, "trend_reference": 204.947639, "distance_from_trend": -0.012919, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 241.16519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.161156, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.284055, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.098597, "excess_performance": -0.160092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012919, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.161156, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011943, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.162841, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.098597, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.018865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1330709, "relative_activity": 0.907491, "balance": 1.018865, "dry_up": 1.040506, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04107, "annualized_volatility": 0.325334, "from_high_reference": -0.184665, "from_low_reference": 0.124372 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.947639, "fair_value_reference": 241.16519, 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"close": 198.449997, "volume": 1669007, "typical_volume": 1564248.25, "trend": 206.804487, "fair_value": 241.115921, "relative_strength": -15.797451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.127994, "energy": 29.102485, "activity_lines": [ 195.003332, 194.98818, 198.383469, 201.73141 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 196.350006, "volume": 1592954, "typical_volume": 1536427.7, "trend": 206.128533, "fair_value": 241.087945, "relative_strength": -17.329264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.87616, "energy": 22.762169, "activity_lines": [ 195.626667, 195.166363, 198.047819, 201.056928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.600006, "volume": 1510360, "typical_volume": 1500648.85, "trend": 205.590997, "fair_value": 241.117486, "relative_strength": -16.061945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.31316, "energy": 17.811141, "activity_lines": [ 197.540002, 196.069092, 198.158714, 200.700248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 202.300003, "volume": 1330709, "typical_volume": 1466360.9, "trend": 204.947639, "fair_value": 241.16519, "relative_strength": -16.284055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.073706, "energy": 17.237045, "activity_lines": [ 199.383336, 197.264547, 198.416383, 200.487926 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }