{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2928c04b-b5d5-45a4-b88a-ca7de9e285bc", "symbol": "PILA", "name": "Pila Pharma AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.499, "architecture_energy": 37.929, "architecture_maturity": 23.918, "architecture_confidence": 93.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.27, "rotation_up": 19.93, "upward_expansion": 5.14, "deceleration": 47.46, "rotation_down": 46.48, "downward_expansion": 73.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.264333, 1.281364, 1.411014, 1.440222 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.285, "trend_reference": 1.484933, "distance_from_trend": -0.134641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.764922, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.535249, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.773809, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.065506, "excess_performance": 0.004011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169733, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.535249, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158582, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.377738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.065506, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978428, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183989, "relative_activity": 0.50068, "balance": 0.978428, "dry_up": 0.607586, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180186, "annualized_volatility": 0.722899, "from_high_reference": -0.515094, "from_low_reference": 0.259804 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.484933, "fair_value_reference": 2.764922, "structural_low": 1.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.053498, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.655172, "median_excess_return": -0.043594, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 1.25498, "worst_return": -0.396783, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020966, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.065955, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.021661, "worst_return": -0.472, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.176752, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.264114, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 2.66787, "worst_return": -0.412946, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.361011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.187279, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.37788, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.200787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": 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"typical_volume": 368771.4, "trend": 1.566667, "fair_value": 2.785499, "relative_strength": -37.541541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.470536, "energy": 57.213641, "activity_lines": [ 1.290667, 1.367545, 1.488362, 1.496748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.17, "volume": 259275, "typical_volume": 362841.75, "trend": 1.532333, "fair_value": 2.777807, "relative_strength": -43.661774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.920425, "energy": 53.883521, "activity_lines": [ 1.248667, 1.316818, 1.455829, 1.471157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.275, "volume": 410759, "typical_volume": 369895.05, "trend": 1.507167, "fair_value": 2.770916, "relative_strength": -38.117854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.24267, "energy": 41.427349, "activity_lines": [ 1.256, 1.294818, 1.433352, 1.454555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.285, "volume": 183989, "typical_volume": 367477.9, "trend": 1.484933, "fair_value": 2.764922, "relative_strength": -37.773809, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.498924, "energy": 37.928876, "activity_lines": [ 1.264333, 1.281364, 1.411014, 1.440222 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }