{ "ticker": { "uuid": "292bf290-51ac-4ce8-9d73-7aef23e149a3", "symbol": "ELCO", "name": "Elco Ltd.", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.968, "architecture_energy": 67.375, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.9, "rotation_down": 55.96, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 145.046667, 147.450909, 3839.515565, 6605.779864 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 136.5, "trend_reference": 10054.350964, "distance_from_trend": -0.986424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13062.85921, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.989551, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -99.084824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991468, "excess_performance": -1.020368, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.986424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.360207, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.989551, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.112392, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.990848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.685076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991468, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.367759, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 395846, "relative_activity": 1.937301, "balance": 0.367759, "dry_up": 0.978872, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.612285, "annualized_volatility": 6.385216, "from_high_reference": -0.992919, "from_low_reference": 0.012611 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10054.350964, "fair_value_reference": 13062.85921, "structural_low": 134.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.001974, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.001577, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.143498, "worst_return": -0.988881, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.152047, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.160427, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.244898, "worst_return": -0.989564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.073837, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.098979, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.519779, "worst_return": -0.991151, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 191195.95, "trend": 10682.379935, "fair_value": 13150.72954, "relative_strength": -99.033576, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.00015, "energy": 67.699186, "activity_lines": [ 149.686667, 416.449091, 4566.393098, 7286.159215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 136.5, "volume": 395846, "typical_volume": 204328.65, "trend": 10054.350964, "fair_value": 13062.85921, "relative_strength": -99.084824, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.967596, "energy": 67.374512, "activity_lines": [ 145.046667, 147.450909, 3839.515565, 6605.779864 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }