{ "ticker": { "uuid": "292c9732-60e6-46c6-b9f3-7f239731db18", "symbol": "601777", "name": "Chongqing Afari Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.61, "architecture_energy": 52.699, "architecture_maturity": 38.808, "architecture_confidence": 85.943, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.34, "rotation_up": 18.89, "upward_expansion": 7.98, "deceleration": 58.13, "rotation_down": 60.79, "downward_expansion": 81.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.978, 8.113455, 9.089857, 9.525269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.51, "trend_reference": 10.097, "distance_from_trend": -0.157175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.080513, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20189, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.824799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.19717, "excess_performance": -0.153966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.157175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20189, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.508354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188248, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19717, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.374863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 173598734, "relative_activity": 1.060962, "balance": 1.374863, "dry_up": 1.058106, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124288, "annualized_volatility": 0.461856, "from_high_reference": -0.386003, "from_low_reference": 0.207092 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.097, "fair_value_reference": 7.080513, "structural_low": 7.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.021672, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": -0.009161, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.512635, "worst_return": -0.176796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.051916, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.079931, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.449367, "worst_return": -0.150895, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027427, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.103296, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.417957, "worst_return": -0.220657, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-80.558455, "energy": 87.746512, "activity_lines": [ 8.329333, 9.232909, 9.903857, 10.17243 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.07, "volume": 156711783, "typical_volume": 159976948.75, "trend": 10.352333, "fair_value": 6.997628, "relative_strength": -29.858283, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.265772, "energy": 91.541181, "activity_lines": [ 7.794667, 8.701091, 9.604619, 9.953462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.29, "volume": 149573314, "typical_volume": 157196011.1, "trend": 10.247, "fair_value": 7.020641, "relative_strength": -28.356042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.522355, "energy": 89.056369, "activity_lines": [ 7.515333, 8.286182, 9.348143, 9.755892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.33, "volume": 212641902, "typical_volume": 161791496.45, "trend": 10.167667, "fair_value": 7.05, "relative_strength": -18.411681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.333369, "energy": 70.424862, "activity_lines": [ 7.716667, 8.146182, 9.205905, 9.632215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.51, "volume": 173598734, "typical_volume": 163623882.3, "trend": 10.097, "fair_value": 7.080513, "relative_strength": -18.824799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.610491, "energy": 52.699206, "activity_lines": [ 7.978, 8.113455, 9.089857, 9.525269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }