{ "ticker": { "uuid": "292e85b1-c33e-4ff7-b9a3-73eeced8df50", "symbol": "XREP", "name": "Invesco Real Estate S&P US Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.106, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.744, "architecture_energy": 42.845, "architecture_maturity": 57.271, "architecture_confidence": 53.934, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.51, "rotation_up": 49.51, "upward_expansion": 73.96, "deceleration": 69.14, "rotation_down": 20.81, "downward_expansion": 5.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.840667, 20.779773, 20.543314, 20.263914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.645, "trend_reference": 19.86115, "distance_from_trend": 0.039466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.478024, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117273, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.918854, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.112938, "excess_performance": 0.061703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040009, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117273, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011354, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.019189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020595, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112938, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.131342, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 188111, "relative_activity": 2.761887, "balance": 1.131342, "dry_up": 2.159468, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028784, "annualized_volatility": 0.155016, "from_high_reference": -0.191049, "from_low_reference": 0.15361 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.86115, "fair_value_reference": 18.478024, "structural_low": 18.356, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.002988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011999, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.071745, "worst_return": -0.269103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010646, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.040204, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.062033, "worst_return": -0.283013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.033992, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050433, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124749, "worst_return": -0.215931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019192, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.005053, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.272473, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052509, 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20.204931, 19.927463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.01, "volume": 71021, "typical_volume": 50362.05, "trend": 19.583467, "fair_value": 18.393392, "relative_strength": 2.330788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.972684, "energy": 52.323631, "activity_lines": [ 20.688667, 20.598873, 20.305517, 20.025573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.395, "volume": 284650, "typical_volume": 63240.15, "trend": 19.6958, "fair_value": 18.424226, "relative_strength": 2.957839, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.152967, "energy": 56.486152, "activity_lines": [ 20.938333, 20.766045, 20.43735, 20.142446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.7175, "volume": 44540, "typical_volume": 64014.75, "trend": 19.78395, "fair_value": 18.451222, "relative_strength": -1.388301, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.093447, "energy": 45.222502, "activity_lines": [ 20.889833, 20.783545, 20.496593, 20.208362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.645, "volume": 188111, "typical_volume": 68109.6, "trend": 19.86115, "fair_value": 18.478024, "relative_strength": -1.918854, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.743518, "energy": 42.844883, "activity_lines": [ 20.840667, 20.779773, 20.543314, 20.263914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }