{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29335a1b-5bc8-43af-aee3-330aebb97578", "symbol": "300736", "name": "BYBON Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.221, "architecture_energy": 15.355, "architecture_maturity": 54.462, "architecture_confidence": 69.853, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.9, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 40.8, "deceleration": 84.99, "rotation_down": 40.29, "downward_expansion": 34.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.6, 28.718909, 29.910953, 28.379355 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.790001, "trend_reference": 25.803333, "distance_from_trend": 0.115747, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.859744, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.937449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 33.220749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.622886, "excess_performance": 0.615486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.115747, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.172523, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.937449, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.587159, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.332207, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404178, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.622886, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.961145, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23468460, "relative_activity": 0.549895, "balance": 2.961145, "dry_up": 0.624694, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190477, "annualized_volatility": 0.823928, "from_high_reference": -0.406147, "from_low_reference": 1.565954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.803333, "fair_value_reference": 14.859744, "structural_low": 17.389999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027316, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004822, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.136653, "worst_return": -0.314702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.125853, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.10665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.402279, "worst_return": -0.497217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.270722, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.315235, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.4302, "worst_return": -0.196233, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.052248, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.16079, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00495, "worst_return": -0.394558, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188439, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.244208, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.261818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.120459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185947, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048919, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083605, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.142717, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.135731, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030858, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.44548, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.204558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.698329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.129949, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 14.78, "volume": 41474924, "typical_volume": 21577835.05, "trend": 13.837, "fair_value": 11.359423, "relative_strength": 15.423294, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"up", "direction": 39.47573, "energy": 25.973755, "activity_lines": [ 31.586001, 32.55, 30.091667, 27.451161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.27, "volume": 29552860, "typical_volume": 43758478.15, "trend": 24.617667, "fair_value": 14.496346, "relative_strength": 39.933116, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.365057, "energy": 25.426754, "activity_lines": [ 31.209334, 32.087637, 30.370381, 27.836839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.1, "volume": 24473312, "typical_volume": 43999006.7, "trend": 24.724667, "fair_value": 14.579103, "relative_strength": 25.973219, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.647297, "energy": 14.994912, "activity_lines": [ 29.112667, 30.636728, 30.113238, 27.867957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.18, "volume": 33134854, "typical_volume": 43436382.35, "trend": 24.968, "fair_value": 14.670961, "relative_strength": 33.986121, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.291812, "energy": 15.358302, "activity_lines": [ 27.94, 29.716182, 30.034429, 28.026366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.01, "volume": 25566219, "typical_volume": 42835211.55, "trend": 25.360667, "fair_value": 14.760064, "relative_strength": 33.385528, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.325946, "energy": 15.600202, "activity_lines": [ 27.270667, 28.950727, 29.901143, 28.158108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.790001, "volume": 23468460, "typical_volume": 42678049.55, "trend": 25.803333, "fair_value": 14.859744, "relative_strength": 33.220749, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.221106, "energy": 15.355132, "activity_lines": [ 27.6, 28.718909, 29.910953, 28.379355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }