{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2933d4bf-6f12-4385-a8b5-fcda0ca8d0ca",
    "symbol": "HYGH",
    "name": "ISHARES US ETF TRUST INT RATE HDGD HIGH YIELD BD",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 67.467,
    "architecture_energy": 43.417,
    "architecture_maturity": 19.793,
    "architecture_confidence": 54.041,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 36.54,
        "rotation_up": 43.98,
        "upward_expansion": 74.29,
        "deceleration": 66.66,
        "rotation_down": 25.89,
        "downward_expansion": 5.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        86.129911,
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        85.904141,
        85.554598
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 86.465,
    "trend_reference": 85.139231,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.015572,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 77.91982,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109666,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -8.455912,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.021632,
    "excess_performance": -0.103993,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015572,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010685,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.109666,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.010453,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084559,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.000605,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021632,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.496369,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 326171,
      "relative_activity": 1.213054,
      "balance": 1.496369,
      "dry_up": 1.26567,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.006454,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.032059,
      "from_high_reference": -0.0034,
      "from_low_reference": 0.063678
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 85.139231,
      "fair_value_reference": 77.91982,
      "structural_low": 83.379598,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.01292,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.014259,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.035585,
        "worst_return": -0.020145,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.031991,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.049456,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.060037,
        "worst_return": 0.014032,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.064275,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.053102,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.004289,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
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        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.168971,
        "worst_return": 0.01392,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2022-08-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009783,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-09-02",
        "end": "2022-11-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.036828,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004987,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.142298,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.006987,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "return": 0.069557,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": true
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      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -6.59862,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": -4.975052,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 320155.1,
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      },
      {
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        "relative_strength": -7.639512,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 283371.05,
        "trend": 84.927764,
        "fair_value": 77.554732,
        "relative_strength": -6.021754,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 54.150117,
        "energy": 38.178431,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 85.769358,
        "volume": 394699,
        "typical_volume": 256908.3,
        "trend": 84.989579,
        "fair_value": 77.673588,
        "relative_strength": -5.48093,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.103493,
        "energy": 29.945604,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 86.097672,
        "volume": 243411,
        "typical_volume": 259702.45,
        "trend": 85.065258,
        "fair_value": 77.796321,
        "relative_strength": -5.90358,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.314492,
        "energy": 32.181559,
        "activity_lines": [
          85.960297,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 86.465,
        "volume": 326171,
        "typical_volume": 268884.25,
        "trend": 85.139231,
        "fair_value": 77.91982,
        "relative_strength": -8.455912,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.466895,
        "energy": 43.417442,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}