{ "ticker": { "uuid": "293f34ca-a194-45bb-8ca9-4be11dcb4548", "symbol": "600248", "name": "Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.57, "architecture_energy": 42.845, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.971, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.19, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 19.47, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 38.4, "downward_expansion": 67.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.863384, 2.845164, 2.995855, 3.127989 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.84, "trend_reference": 3.292751, "distance_from_trend": -0.137499, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.774932, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.247668, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.762596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.21547, "excess_performance": -0.172266, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137499, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076712, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.247668, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03965, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.21547, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.728992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90379878, "relative_activity": 1.147158, "balance": 0.728992, "dry_up": 1.289787, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060536, "annualized_volatility": 0.225006, "from_high_reference": -0.300493, "from_low_reference": 0.063068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.292751, "fair_value_reference": 3.774932, "structural_low": 2.671512, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.005168, "positive_rate": 0.413793, "directional_follow_through": 0.551724, "median_excess_return": -0.017438, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.172515, "worst_return": -0.11959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02878, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.030681, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.269608, "worst_return": -0.183691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069082, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072353, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.284557, "worst_return": -0.233715, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -14.228401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.583879, "energy": 50.312205, "activity_lines": [ 2.861498, 2.858665, 3.027057, 3.158683 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.84, "volume": 90379878, "typical_volume": 78785921.55, "trend": 3.292751, "fair_value": 3.774932, "relative_strength": -18.762596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.569828, "energy": 42.844951, "activity_lines": [ 2.863384, 2.845164, 2.995855, 3.127989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }