{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29471a0d-5f77-4f29-b35d-feb8ef87b651", "symbol": "SDY", "name": "Speedy Hire Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.931, "architecture_energy": 42.931, "architecture_maturity": 49.7, "architecture_confidence": 93.781, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.57, "rotation_up": 16.59, "upward_expansion": 6.75, "deceleration": 44.28, "rotation_down": 59.05, "downward_expansion": 82.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1912, 0.194569, 0.196715, 0.20228 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.193, "trend_reference": 0.213553, "distance_from_trend": -0.096244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.252593, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.899471, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243137, "excess_performance": -0.294373, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087332, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243137, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.723004, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15500750, "relative_activity": 2.646189, "balance": 0.723004, "dry_up": 1.931286, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086281, "annualized_volatility": 0.307299, "from_high_reference": -0.38871, "from_low_reference": 0.061606 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.213553, "fair_value_reference": 0.252593, "structural_low": 0.1818, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.00259, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003613, "regime_survival": 0.885714, "best_return": 0.183336, "worst_return": -0.30681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014161, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.051545, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.489527, "worst_return": -0.322695, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.080158, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.10052, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.403793, "worst_return": -0.218725, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 0.253939, "relative_strength": -25.43772, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.402939, "energy": 43.140784, "activity_lines": [ 0.193733, 0.196656, 0.198376, 0.205533 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1894, "volume": 13376244, "typical_volume": 5270687.7, "trend": 0.215403, "fair_value": 0.253249, "relative_strength": -26.002872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.698847, "energy": 50.041492, "activity_lines": [ 0.19108, 0.195207, 0.197297, 0.203725 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.193, "volume": 15500750, "typical_volume": 5857764.15, "trend": 0.213553, "fair_value": 0.252593, "relative_strength": -23.899471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.931233, "energy": 42.930883, "activity_lines": [ 0.1912, 0.194569, 0.196715, 0.20228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }