{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2948f850-f22a-4a18-b0df-6b5a4bb0bf42", "symbol": "YRL", "name": "Yandal Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.593, "architecture_energy": 73.09, "architecture_maturity": 57.254, "architecture_confidence": 89.804, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.12, "rotation_up": 9.89, "upward_expansion": 16.97, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 68.94, "downward_expansion": 87.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.173333, 0.1825, 0.193083, 0.199457 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.175, "trend_reference": 0.20975, "distance_from_trend": -0.165673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.163699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069037, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.605075, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204545, "excess_performance": -0.268251, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069037, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.407086, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.276051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.328541, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.240272, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 181499, "relative_activity": 0.560837, "balance": 0.240272, "dry_up": 1.533042, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10989, "annualized_volatility": 0.468622, "from_high_reference": -0.593023, "from_low_reference": 0.296296 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.20975, "fair_value_reference": 0.163699, "structural_low": 0.155, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.028486, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": -0.039073, "regime_survival": 0.921053, "best_return": 2.505155, "worst_return": -0.361111, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.116928, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.867925, "worst_return": -0.392157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.14, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.237891, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 2.08, "worst_return": -0.594661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.208396, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.091458, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 2.8, "worst_return": -0.74923, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.215686, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.441176, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.27027, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.263158, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.283333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068182, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.05, "volume": 886398, "typical_volume": 397024.25, "trend": 0.0739, "fair_value": 0.28084, "relative_strength": -47.435054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }