{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2949f661-1c6c-4176-afb4-3df92461bda2", "symbol": "DGT", "name": "DigiTouch S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.697, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.383, "architecture_energy": 7.045, "architecture_maturity": 8.797, "architecture_confidence": 65.84, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.24, "rotation_up": 27.35, "upward_expansion": 32.87, "deceleration": 37.96, "rotation_down": 27.88, "downward_expansion": 41.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.861667, 1.857429, 1.855457, 1.860886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.86, "trend_reference": 1.878503, "distance_from_trend": -0.00985, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.927176, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.034857, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.312612, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.062972, "excess_performance": -0.233864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00985, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022849, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.034857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009141, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.173126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.062972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.061697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33000, "relative_activity": 0.671073, "balance": 1.061697, "dry_up": 0.87697, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049066, "annualized_volatility": 0.189396, "from_high_reference": -0.142857, "from_low_reference": 0.063715 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.878503, "fair_value_reference": 1.927176, "structural_low": 1.748588, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.029512, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.031228, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.070093, "worst_return": -0.126866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050076, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.112491, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.022571, "worst_return": -0.098143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029992, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.110861, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.053215, "worst_return": -0.080488, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.028772, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.244413, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050521, "worst_return": -0.108065, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-07-21", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131356, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.051402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.084304, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116809, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.087079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.020725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015152, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039578, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.188091, "volume": 30000, "typical_volume": 67975.0, "trend": 2.442734, "fair_value": 1.772568, "relative_strength": -14.622136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.154481, "energy": 49.529497, "activity_lines": [ 2.218562, 2.241211, 2.321048, 2.381225 ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 2.178366, "volume": 40000, "typical_volume": 69200.0, "trend": 2.436092, "fair_value": 1.779431, "relative_strength": -15.97346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.04674, "energy": 49.880375, "activity_lines": [ 2.201057, 2.22425, 2.3007, 2.364169 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 2.158916, "volume": 111500, "typical_volume": 72875.0, "trend": 2.423989, "fair_value": 1.786322, "relative_strength": -17.543288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.92127, "energy": 47.893356, "activity_lines": [ 2.184849, 2.208425, 2.280319, 2.346286 ] }, { "date": "2023-09-08", "close": 2.158916, "volume": 47500, "typical_volume": 71850.0, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.885, "volume": 104500, "typical_volume": 54000.0, "trend": 1.89217, "fair_value": 1.934235, "relative_strength": -14.618436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.51133, "energy": 12.288541, "activity_lines": [ 1.869467, 1.850573, 1.85541, 1.867112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.87, "volume": 9500, "typical_volume": 49900.0, "trend": 1.889503, "fair_value": 1.93176, "relative_strength": -14.760486, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.331718, "energy": 15.807256, "activity_lines": [ 1.873667, 1.855611, 1.856886, 1.865682 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.84, "volume": 25500, "typical_volume": 49875.0, "trend": 1.884836, "fair_value": 1.929903, "relative_strength": -16.232682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.390327, "energy": 14.511212, "activity_lines": [ 1.865667, 1.855042, 1.855267, 1.862488 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.86, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 49175.0, "trend": 1.878503, "fair_value": 1.927176, "relative_strength": -17.312612, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.383457, "energy": 7.045162, "activity_lines": [ 1.861667, 1.857429, 1.855457, 1.860886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }