{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2950a3bd-d400-45a1-bef0-2ccf3f03b492", "symbol": "AW9U", "name": "First Real Estate Investment Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.263, "architecture_energy": 29.384, "architecture_maturity": 85.204, "architecture_confidence": 82.049, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.23, "rotation_up": 26.58, "upward_expansion": 15.49, "deceleration": 45.68, "rotation_down": 31.33, "downward_expansion": 60.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.228636, 0.23029, 0.234271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.23, "trend_reference": 0.241326, "distance_from_trend": -0.046932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.229644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.001552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.339872, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113325, "excess_performance": -0.26816, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045786, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.001552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033383, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.233399, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069308, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113325, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705612, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4345200, "relative_activity": 0.709134, "balance": 0.705612, "dry_up": 0.669513, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026756, "annualized_volatility": 0.123617, "from_high_reference": -0.158853, "from_low_reference": 0.045455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.241326, "fair_value_reference": 0.229644, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.009617, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.01249, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.104167, "worst_return": -0.053569, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059913, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003084, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.183392, "worst_return": -0.079249, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.091189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.066936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.188881, "worst_return": -0.006502, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03568, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.022818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070951, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042038, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.238272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.225, "volume": 2023300, "typical_volume": 6517270.0, "trend": 0.244746, "fair_value": 0.229101, "relative_strength": -24.053684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.515648, "energy": 55.567452, "activity_lines": [ 0.227, 0.228091, 0.231643, 0.236925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.23, "volume": 3735900, "typical_volume": 6131545.0, "trend": 0.243766, "fair_value": 0.229275, "relative_strength": -22.922379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.750017, "energy": 39.955926, "activity_lines": [ 0.228, 0.228182, 0.231098, 0.235973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.23, "volume": 6305300, "typical_volume": 6155470.0, "trend": 0.242626, "fair_value": 0.22945, "relative_strength": -22.93891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.986512, "energy": 31.935016, "activity_lines": [ 0.229, 0.228364, 0.230647, 0.235085 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.23, "volume": 4345200, "typical_volume": 6127475.0, "trend": 0.241326, "fair_value": 0.229644, "relative_strength": -23.339872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.263171, "energy": 29.384434, "activity_lines": [ 0.229333, 0.228636, 0.23029, 0.234271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }