{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2956555e-734f-4c79-b7ce-6af4199d4c62", "symbol": "MNRO", "name": "Monro Muffler Brake Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.421, "architecture_energy": 66.649, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.763, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.12, "rotation_up": 15.09, "upward_expansion": 18.67, "deceleration": 31.99, "rotation_down": 65.09, "downward_expansion": 82.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.25, 15.262909, 15.751252, 16.192816 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.73, "trend_reference": 17.120648, "distance_from_trend": -0.256453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.384873, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.375517, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.84471, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.375372, "excess_performance": -0.562826, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.256453, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.375517, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169526, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.358447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.375372, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.516385, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4859897, "relative_activity": 0.966834, "balance": 0.516385, "dry_up": 0.982127, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161066, "annualized_volatility": 0.683165, "from_high_reference": -0.451393, "from_low_reference": 0.046875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.120648, "fair_value_reference": 20.384873, "structural_low": 12.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014379, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.022257, "regime_survival": 0.608696, "best_return": 0.184102, "worst_return": -0.242713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.027559, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.051952, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.107444, "worst_return": -0.306128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13766, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.123988, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.330612, "worst_return": -0.243801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.136749, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.361337, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.104819, "worst_return": -0.289802, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113833, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129981, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024452, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062788, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015898, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125666, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045678, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020928, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2026-03-06", 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17.711011, "fair_value": 20.704687, "relative_strength": -12.068551, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.706795, "energy": 13.416234, "activity_lines": [ 16.910667, 16.493995, 16.407952, 16.896538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.79, "volume": 3296374, "typical_volume": 4792003.9, "trend": 17.59781, "fair_value": 20.610157, "relative_strength": -11.426247, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.721431, "energy": 11.540976, "activity_lines": [ 16.924, 16.595161, 16.453612, 16.837118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.25, "volume": 8351628, "typical_volume": 4980245.15, "trend": 17.368859, "fair_value": 20.49402, "relative_strength": -35.45137, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.576949, "energy": 44.020774, "activity_lines": [ 15.341333, 15.847146, 16.072937, 16.492098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.73, "volume": 4859897, "typical_volume": 5026607.95, "trend": 17.120648, "fair_value": 20.384873, "relative_strength": -35.84471, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.421376, "energy": 66.649417, "activity_lines": [ 14.25, 15.262909, 15.751252, 16.192816 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }