{ "ticker": { "uuid": "295d4c36-a8d3-422f-a3a1-e106448cff52", "symbol": "COLR", "name": "Colruyt Group N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 52.688, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.13, "architecture_energy": 82.078, "architecture_maturity": 20.439, "architecture_confidence": 62.979, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.1, "rotation_up": 78.28, "upward_expansion": 95.47, "deceleration": 42.65, "rotation_down": 9.32, "downward_expansion": 19.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.226666, 37.396363, 35.86019, 35.269807 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.16, "trend_reference": 34.518667, "distance_from_trend": 0.105489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.784799, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037385, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.868595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.112536, "excess_performance": -0.06171, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148835, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088686, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.112536, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624719, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 445, "relative_activity": 4.058368, "balance": 0.624719, "dry_up": 1.648427, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037776, "annualized_volatility": 0.205996, "from_high_reference": -0.033924, "from_low_reference": 0.261905 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.518667, "fair_value_reference": 36.784799, "structural_low": 31.6, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.010786, "positive_rate": 0.590909, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.003385, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.139541, "worst_return": -0.082418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.073496, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.019008, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.288645, "worst_return": -0.052314, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.059176, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.018376, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.498735, "worst_return": -0.14423, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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36.564915, "relative_strength": -14.356917, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.602302, "energy": 75.890133, "activity_lines": [ 35.526666, 34.598182, 34.125619, 33.913032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.84, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.5, "trend": 33.567333, "fair_value": 36.599892, "relative_strength": -11.859956, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.270042, "energy": 80.473331, "activity_lines": [ 36.106667, 35.128363, 34.391905, 34.133118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.360001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.5, "trend": 33.800667, "fair_value": 36.644327, "relative_strength": -5.986747, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.852715, "energy": 92.441192, "activity_lines": [ 36.966667, 35.862182, 34.792953, 34.442323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.919998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.5, "trend": 34.018667, "fair_value": 36.688278, "relative_strength": -7.798783, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.314816, "energy": 89.105051, "activity_lines": [ 37.5, 36.404727, 35.132476, 34.708086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.82, "volume": 278, "typical_volume": 87.4, "trend": 34.254667, "fair_value": 36.737258, "relative_strength": -5.054504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.350258, "energy": 91.079123, "activity_lines": [ 38.068, 37.010181, 35.539238, 35.01785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.16, "volume": 445, "typical_volume": 109.65, "trend": 34.518667, "fair_value": 36.784799, "relative_strength": -8.868595, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.130454, "energy": 82.078342, "activity_lines": [ 38.226666, 37.396363, 35.86019, 35.269807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }