{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29630f87-b0f1-4592-bcb1-ccb4fca92019", "symbol": "FCTR", "name": "FIRST TRUST LUNT U.S. FACTOR ROTATION ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.829, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.215, "architecture_energy": 24.346, "architecture_maturity": 64.113, "architecture_confidence": 79.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.4, "rotation_up": 26.38, "upward_expansion": 56.45, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 35.98, "downward_expansion": 20.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.977847, 39.364029, 39.183025, 38.574754 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.8043, "trend_reference": 37.937334, "distance_from_trend": 0.049212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.289576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232729, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.382216, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.076329, "excess_performance": -0.049296, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038248, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232729, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007997, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033822, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004997, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.08186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12236, "relative_activity": 1.15079, "balance": 1.08186, "dry_up": 0.928245, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038899, "annualized_volatility": 0.142103, "from_high_reference": -0.035743, "from_low_reference": 0.241911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.937334, "fair_value_reference": 32.289576, "structural_low": 35.035, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047043, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.070851, "worst_return": 0.002985, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.022664, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001949, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.136406, "worst_return": -0.079374, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.055746, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.05784, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056686, "worst_return": 0.054807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"activity_lines": [ 39.640063, 39.820908, 38.983922, 38.364981 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.5526, "volume": 6586, "typical_volume": 10056.15, "trend": 37.789059, "fair_value": 32.119272, "relative_strength": -2.25562, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.685208, "energy": 21.089755, "activity_lines": [ 39.193253, 39.612833, 39.03142, 38.41937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.25, "volume": 9081, "typical_volume": 10228.55, "trend": 37.856781, "fair_value": 32.197121, "relative_strength": -3.955042, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.883525, "energy": 21.315142, "activity_lines": [ 38.7695, 39.33972, 39.039441, 38.449108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.8043, "volume": 12236, "typical_volume": 10632.7, "trend": 37.937334, "fair_value": 32.289576, "relative_strength": -3.382216, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.214826, "energy": 24.34608, "activity_lines": [ 38.977847, 39.364029, 39.183025, 38.574754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }