{ "ticker": { "uuid": "296340a5-2d02-4e40-b032-5cb8f3e5df5e", "symbol": "PSBD", "name": "Palmer Square Capital BDC Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 78.022, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.777, "architecture_energy": 55.072, "architecture_maturity": 4.14, "architecture_confidence": 90.372, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.02, "rotation_up": 12.84, "upward_expansion": 14.32, "deceleration": 35.1, "rotation_down": 64.4, "downward_expansion": 85.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.930667, 10.092859, 10.245535, 10.284944 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.45, "trend_reference": 10.431753, "distance_from_trend": 0.001749, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.020079, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130621, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.271167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.053123, "excess_performance": -0.178748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001749, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034905, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001507, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152712, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028153, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.053123, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 671365, "relative_activity": 1.070762, "balance": 0.648837, "dry_up": 0.909644, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052618, "annualized_volatility": 0.273592, "from_high_reference": -0.19461, "from_low_reference": 0.118844 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.431753, "fair_value_reference": 12.020079, "structural_low": 9.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006661, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.019013, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.051692, "worst_return": -0.096916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.03951, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.091917, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.020863, "worst_return": -0.058157, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.077807, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.184155, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.077807, "worst_return": -0.077807, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00898, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035211, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031303, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.058157, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091528, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095388, "active": true } ], "chart_path": 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"relative_strength": -16.701567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.095289, "energy": 7.934576, "activity_lines": [ 10.469908, 10.467721, 10.424853, 10.473255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.83, "volume": 717527, "typical_volume": 613963.2, "trend": 10.599733, "fair_value": 12.070157, "relative_strength": -19.045428, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.600375, "energy": 34.409521, "activity_lines": [ 10.254629, 10.351172, 10.376247, 10.420827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.51, "volume": 520243, "typical_volume": 615820.5, "trend": 10.537478, "fair_value": 12.050762, "relative_strength": -20.599689, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.864822, "energy": 62.79382, "activity_lines": [ 9.972, 10.191035, 10.298089, 10.350521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.54, "volume": 372243, "typical_volume": 609718.55, "trend": 10.468967, "fair_value": 12.031884, "relative_strength": -20.521163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.444968, "energy": 70.091175, "activity_lines": [ 9.760667, 10.050782, 10.22767, 10.286168 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.45, "volume": 671365, "typical_volume": 626997.6, "trend": 10.431753, "fair_value": 12.020079, "relative_strength": -15.271167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.777026, "energy": 55.072059, "activity_lines": [ 9.930667, 10.092859, 10.245535, 10.284944 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }