{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29645dd2-3e06-4bdb-b6f0-644850c93444", "symbol": "00852L", "name": "Cathay DJIA Lev 2X ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.604, "architecture_energy": 67.965, "architecture_maturity": 57.276, "architecture_confidence": 70.14, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 61.55, "upward_expansion": 84.75, "deceleration": 66.41, "rotation_down": 24.84, "downward_expansion": 11.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.324666, 34.969636, 33.840095, 32.879183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 36.599998, "trend_reference": 32.034667, "distance_from_trend": 0.142512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.303397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.391455, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.16989, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.17496, "excess_performance": -0.204352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.142512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.391455, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.139076, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121699, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141008, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.439187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 374246, "relative_activity": 0.275716, "balance": 4.439187, "dry_up": 0.294748, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031925, "annualized_volatility": 0.231474, "from_high_reference": -0.025559, "from_low_reference": 0.469289 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.034667, "fair_value_reference": 26.303397, "structural_low": 26.15, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.008051, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.020482, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.097899, "worst_return": -0.113963, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.008286, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.083327, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.220266, "worst_return": -0.181147, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.135891, "worst_return": -0.188997, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.119999, "volume": 241030, "typical_volume": 1687536.25, "trend": 31.709333, "fair_value": 26.111603, "relative_strength": -17.996446, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.449073, "energy": 78.811864, "activity_lines": [ 34.638, 34.328727, 33.103905, 32.35557 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.060001, "volume": 414000, "typical_volume": 1473109.6, "trend": 31.834667, "fair_value": 26.202885, "relative_strength": -14.170338, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.486108, "energy": 61.053505, "activity_lines": [ 34.753333, 34.532909, 33.413762, 32.571742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.599998, "volume": 374246, "typical_volume": 1357361.5, "trend": 32.034667, "fair_value": 26.303397, "relative_strength": -12.16989, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.604272, "energy": 67.965451, "activity_lines": [ 35.324666, 34.969636, 33.840095, 32.879183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }