{ "ticker": { "uuid": "296c1704-4ff2-41bd-b432-3dac3e9c3cb7", "symbol": "PON1V", "name": "Ponsse Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 80.218, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -17.448, "architecture_energy": 18.666, "architecture_maturity": 23.887, "architecture_confidence": 68.405, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.4, "rotation_up": 42.16, "upward_expansion": 28.04, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 20.69, "downward_expansion": 48.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.413333, 23.152727, 23.164762, 23.193176 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.299999, "trend_reference": 23.441757, "distance_from_trend": -0.006047, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.766927, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019646, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.145024, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.06107, "excess_performance": -0.109288, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006047, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030141, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019646, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023325, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.14145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115324, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.06107, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.708383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16076, "relative_activity": 0.831168, "balance": 0.708383, "dry_up": 1.185627, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039617, "annualized_volatility": 0.22156, "from_high_reference": -0.202381, "from_low_reference": 0.135658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.441757, "fair_value_reference": 23.766927, "structural_low": 20.516736, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.006536, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.016171, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.161765, "worst_return": -0.17375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020507, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.033107, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.074613, "worst_return": -0.216749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.093558, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.081148, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.084848, "worst_return": -0.232811, 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"Developing", "return": -0.082397, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060284, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131387, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093878, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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"activity_lines": [ 22.546667, 22.896364, 22.994298, 23.236285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 19124, "typical_volume": 19011.65, "trend": 23.703417, "fair_value": 23.851445, "relative_strength": -14.105197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.485472, "energy": 30.381195, "activity_lines": [ 22.793333, 22.918182, 23.023016, 23.206369 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.0, "volume": 17964, "typical_volume": 19254.3, "trend": 23.646924, "fair_value": 23.816863, "relative_strength": -10.892816, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.64312, "energy": 7.613919, "activity_lines": [ 23.24, 23.065454, 23.118175, 23.225503 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 23.4, "volume": 38563, "typical_volume": 19264.9, "trend": 23.554149, "fair_value": 23.791017, "relative_strength": -13.776724, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.56186, "energy": 16.157554, "activity_lines": [ 23.373333, 23.116363, 23.148908, 23.209573 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 16076, "typical_volume": 19341.45, "trend": 23.441757, "fair_value": 23.766927, "relative_strength": -14.145024, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.448142, "energy": 18.666241, "activity_lines": [ 23.413333, 23.152727, 23.164762, 23.193176 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }