{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2972c755-4e7c-4750-92c2-6f2978165cbf", "symbol": "AIRAN", "name": "Airan Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.925, "architecture_energy": 61.914, "architecture_maturity": 9.221, "architecture_confidence": 89.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.03, "rotation_up": 10.77, "upward_expansion": 13.3, "deceleration": 37.75, "rotation_down": 72.19, "downward_expansion": 91.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.182667, 15.535273, 16.031762, 16.120667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.09, "trend_reference": 16.143667, "distance_from_trend": -0.065268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.525449, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.408825, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.99949, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014795, "excess_performance": 0.058504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.065268, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065273, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.408825, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.189995, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022094, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014795, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391453, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 231109, "relative_activity": 0.945005, "balance": 0.391453, "dry_up": 0.810015, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073814, "annualized_volatility": 0.525253, "from_high_reference": -0.483396, "from_low_reference": 0.194774 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.143667, "fair_value_reference": 25.525449, "structural_low": 12.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.010518, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.029763, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.174632, "worst_return": -0.177882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.053977, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.113117, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.255396, "worst_return": -0.223379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.098383, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.189373, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.061047, "worst_return": -0.343475, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.158596, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157955, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -50.672464, "energy": 41.514978, "activity_lines": [ 15.819333, 16.112727, 16.360571, 16.353118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.03, "volume": 122128, "typical_volume": 250935.2, "trend": 16.308, "fair_value": 25.596026, "relative_strength": -18.512348, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.547587, "energy": 54.622602, "activity_lines": [ 15.492667, 15.877091, 16.239667, 16.264021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.2, "volume": 191859, "typical_volume": 248577.5, "trend": 16.204, "fair_value": 25.563333, "relative_strength": -18.737187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.27935, "energy": 58.259363, "activity_lines": [ 15.324, 15.707636, 16.139619, 16.192538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.09, "volume": 231109, "typical_volume": 244558.55, "trend": 16.143667, "fair_value": 25.525449, "relative_strength": -18.99949, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.924514, "energy": 61.913644, "activity_lines": [ 15.182667, 15.535273, 16.031762, 16.120667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }