{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29755642-e05f-4073-89cd-1a3af2a51d87", "symbol": "VLA", "name": "Valneva SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.979, "architecture_energy": 58.881, "architecture_maturity": 98.306, "architecture_confidence": 85.987, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 29.18, "upward_expansion": 11.06, "deceleration": 60.16, "rotation_down": 48.7, "downward_expansion": 82.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.194, 2.215618, 2.299552, 2.595454 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.266, "trend_reference": 3.0542, "distance_from_trend": -0.258071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.528455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.357793, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.508167, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.437438, "excess_performance": -0.490749, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.258071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146132, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.357793, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022789, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.395082, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.437438, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.158625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1974429, "relative_activity": 0.486862, "balance": 3.158625, "dry_up": 0.495911, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087413, "annualized_volatility": 0.769668, "from_high_reference": -0.581533, "from_low_reference": 0.114609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.0542, "fair_value_reference": 3.528455, "structural_low": 2.033, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.019963, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.054864, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.616795, "worst_return": -0.331818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.183635, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.119433, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.582721, "worst_return": -0.551146, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.219639, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.305693, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.272138, "worst_return": -0.637652, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298918, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.260158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198811, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062876, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", 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"direction": -74.405084, "energy": 86.112579, "activity_lines": [ 2.255667, 2.317618, 2.490967, 2.857852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.156, "volume": 2066935, "typical_volume": 4852532.35, "trend": 3.223867, "fair_value": 3.615468, "relative_strength": -41.285124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.678248, "energy": 84.136854, "activity_lines": [ 2.2184, 2.279745, 2.422938, 2.785929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.111, "volume": 1991522, "typical_volume": 4592266.1, "trend": 3.173967, "fair_value": 3.585615, "relative_strength": -42.334609, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.579261, "energy": 66.56216, "activity_lines": [ 2.1748, 2.238127, 2.362881, 2.714131 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.189, "volume": 2011616, "typical_volume": 4317557.85, "trend": 3.120533, "fair_value": 3.556968, "relative_strength": -40.762116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.536438, "energy": 63.182955, "activity_lines": [ 2.170133, 2.217273, 2.321943, 2.650585 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.266, "volume": 1974429, "typical_volume": 4055414.6, "trend": 3.0542, "fair_value": 3.528455, "relative_strength": -39.508167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.978564, "energy": 58.88092, "activity_lines": [ 2.194, 2.215618, 2.299552, 2.595454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }