{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2984af95-6845-4902-b029-b729be3539f3", "symbol": "ELC", "name": "Elica S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.704, "architecture_energy": 49.953, "architecture_maturity": 54.532, "architecture_confidence": 87.619, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.13, "rotation_up": 20.12, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 47.85, "rotation_down": 55.79, "downward_expansion": 78.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.152333, 1.16, 1.187905, 1.206957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.17, "trend_reference": 1.2505, "distance_from_trend": -0.064374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.615167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.275617, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.925045, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170213, "excess_performance": -0.341104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.275617, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013067, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.778504, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92592, "relative_activity": 1.058277, "balance": 1.778504, "dry_up": 1.429234, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040105, "annualized_volatility": 0.26211, "from_high_reference": -0.36413, "from_low_reference": 0.083333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.2505, "fair_value_reference": 1.615167, "structural_low": 1.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.486486, "directional_follow_through": 0.459459, "median_excess_return": -0.004177, "regime_survival": 0.810811, "best_return": 0.211428, "worst_return": -0.204583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.052326, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.075119, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.284014, "worst_return": -0.312883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.111111, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.044642, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.21973, "worst_return": -0.170539, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054945, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002907, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08078, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.144172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042553, 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"close": 1.19, "volume": 54531, "typical_volume": 88339.55, "trend": 1.317167, "fair_value": 1.648733, "relative_strength": -29.56538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.299141, "energy": 60.372676, "activity_lines": [ 1.177333, 1.195, 1.214452, 1.244731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.13, "volume": 62042, "typical_volume": 83232.95, "trend": 1.2995, "fair_value": 1.640405, "relative_strength": -31.627603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.982361, "energy": 69.024383, "activity_lines": [ 1.160667, 1.181727, 1.205714, 1.232656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.115, "volume": 117863, "typical_volume": 80985.8, "trend": 1.281, "fair_value": 1.63198, "relative_strength": -31.892502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.706984, "energy": 76.849389, "activity_lines": [ 1.143667, 1.167455, 1.19619, 1.220753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.16, "volume": 227696, "typical_volume": 85741.55, "trend": 1.262833, "fair_value": 1.623602, "relative_strength": -29.061978, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.334854, "energy": 56.222953, "activity_lines": [ 1.146333, 1.162455, 1.191429, 1.212946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.17, "volume": 92592, "typical_volume": 87493.2, "trend": 1.2505, "fair_value": 1.615167, "relative_strength": -29.925045, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.703731, "energy": 49.952714, "activity_lines": [ 1.152333, 1.16, 1.187905, 1.206957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }