{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2986c798-f5ef-4167-bb50-e080e85da5a4", "symbol": "ZENITHSTL", "name": "Zenith Steel Pipes & Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.621, "architecture_energy": 19.25, "architecture_maturity": 30.626, "architecture_confidence": 66.542, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.24, "rotation_up": 24.99, "upward_expansion": 17.93, "deceleration": 55.79, "rotation_down": 50.39, "downward_expansion": 45.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.534, 5.597091, 5.763048, 5.729634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.35, "trend_reference": 5.678333, "distance_from_trend": -0.057822, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.4, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.277027, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.02856, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.022945, "excess_performance": 0.066654, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057822, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099011, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.277027, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.180286, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093844, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022945, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.902902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 405719, "relative_activity": 0.827261, "balance": 0.902902, "dry_up": 1.056011, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114162, "annualized_volatility": 0.525816, "from_high_reference": -0.482091, "from_low_reference": 0.213152 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.678333, "fair_value_reference": 7.4, "structural_low": 4.54, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.055962, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.060286, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.481481, "worst_return": -0.200811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.157628, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.617284, "worst_return": -0.263294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.07395, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041075, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.037037, "worst_return": -0.293936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.110609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.116667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.280453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102908, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.124444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062257, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.119777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115702, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.05, "volume": 351741, "typical_volume": 829295.85, "trend": 4.21, "fair_value": 2.955769, "relative_strength": -19.688926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"typical_volume": 510480.05, "trend": 5.737667, "fair_value": 7.392308, "relative_strength": -15.08578, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.58861, "energy": 17.995364, "activity_lines": [ 5.622667, 5.669091, 5.805333, 5.754645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.35, "volume": 405719, "typical_volume": 490436.35, "trend": 5.678333, "fair_value": 7.4, "relative_strength": -18.02856, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.620655, "energy": 19.250046, "activity_lines": [ 5.534, 5.597091, 5.763048, 5.729634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }