{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2996cd14-8fa6-4f53-b081-d9a39aeb8746", "symbol": "OCTU", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER15 UNCAPPED OCT ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.494, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.166, "architecture_energy": 51.089, "architecture_maturity": 17.636, "architecture_confidence": 79.45, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.49, "rotation_up": 55.91, "upward_expansion": 79.83, "deceleration": 58.66, "rotation_down": 23.79, "downward_expansion": 6.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.58348, 30.413782, 30.2261, 29.810089 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.2704, "trend_reference": 29.335323, "distance_from_trend": 0.065964, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.246207, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.147697, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.1031, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.090701, "excess_performance": -0.034924, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065964, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022314, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.147697, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020939, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031031, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.090701, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.819126, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21616, "relative_activity": 0.416334, "balance": 3.819126, "dry_up": 0.271779, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020754, "annualized_volatility": 0.109822, "from_high_reference": -0.00381, "from_low_reference": 0.174255 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.335323, "fair_value_reference": 27.246207, "structural_low": 27.15, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.002001, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.003922, "worst_return": 8e-05, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.036838, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.014152, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.036838, "worst_return": 0.036838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.767936, "energy": 42.598585, "activity_lines": [ 30.278693, 30.28194, 29.848969, 29.477771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.2418, "volume": 17651, "typical_volume": 54147.8, "trend": 29.148137, "fair_value": 27.141396, "relative_strength": -2.799901, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.530698, "energy": 38.659081, "activity_lines": [ 30.283287, 30.274622, 29.936242, 29.552312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.0054, "volume": 9130, "typical_volume": 53229.3, "trend": 29.192577, "fair_value": 27.171543, "relative_strength": -2.899853, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.125273, "energy": 35.867049, "activity_lines": [ 30.20496, 30.222824, 29.992612, 29.60762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.3151, "volume": 8046, "typical_volume": 52284.1, "trend": 29.254643, "fair_value": 27.204289, "relative_strength": -2.860547, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.299112, "energy": 38.167831, "activity_lines": [ 30.25884, 30.230958, 30.069633, 29.68004 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.2704, "volume": 21616, "typical_volume": 51919.9, "trend": 29.335323, "fair_value": 27.246207, "relative_strength": -3.1031, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.165942, "energy": 51.089253, "activity_lines": [ 30.58348, 30.413782, 30.2261, 29.810089 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }