{ "ticker": { "uuid": "29983c62-746f-4b54-9eda-5b9ae12d8cc3", "symbol": "603339", "name": "Square Technology Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.832, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -29.246, "architecture_energy": 25.985, "architecture_maturity": 34.325, "architecture_confidence": 49.424, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.31, "rotation_up": 17.69, "upward_expansion": 8.28, "deceleration": 52.23, "rotation_down": 53.56, "downward_expansion": 69.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.02535, 13.284723, 13.337941, 13.368184 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.29, "trend_reference": 13.468893, "distance_from_trend": 0.060963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.93897, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196921, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.794366, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.049963, "excess_performance": 0.093167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.196921, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045228, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057944, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099764, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47204317, "relative_activity": 1.587061, "balance": 1.225424, "dry_up": 1.96536, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102294, "annualized_volatility": 0.598569, "from_high_reference": -0.246705, "from_low_reference": 0.389141 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.468893, "fair_value_reference": 11.93897, "structural_low": 10.286934, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009709, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.012336, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.149335, "worst_return": -0.157428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.050775, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.070625, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.309479, "worst_return": -0.138712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.094664, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.054423, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.251762, "worst_return": -0.290871, "sufficient": true }, { 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16.027102, "volume": 140173887, "typical_volume": 21347801.45, "trend": 13.516507, "fair_value": 11.999973, "relative_strength": 16.210555, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.070566, "energy": 75.089876, "activity_lines": [ 14.570237, 13.986175, 13.688008, 13.628697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.391571, "volume": 101906191, "typical_volume": 25585976.4, "trend": 13.473893, "fair_value": 11.975765, "relative_strength": -12.063384, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.23848, "energy": 11.048306, "activity_lines": [ 13.670413, 13.561638, 13.483324, 13.491604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.36, "volume": 46397555, "typical_volume": 26901592.3, "trend": 13.428893, "fair_value": 11.952761, "relative_strength": -13.18133, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.993327, "energy": 42.870032, "activity_lines": [ 12.849294, 13.176061, 13.289148, 13.355224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.76, "volume": 38316492, "typical_volume": 28035877.6, "trend": 13.420226, "fair_value": 11.938731, "relative_strength": -2.855975, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.9778, "energy": 35.107651, "activity_lines": [ 12.638842, 13.085574, 13.239021, 13.312069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.29, "volume": 47204317, "typical_volume": 29743221.05, "trend": 13.468893, "fair_value": 11.93897, "relative_strength": 5.794366, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.245934, "energy": 25.984576, "activity_lines": [ 13.02535, 13.284723, 13.337941, 13.368184 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }