{ "ticker": { "uuid": "299b8d3c-6a0d-4798-8b63-96b7d1aef76d", "symbol": "ELV", "name": "Elevance Health Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.995, "architecture_energy": 24.586, "architecture_maturity": 67.236, "architecture_confidence": 86.632, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.11, "rotation_up": 29.08, "upward_expansion": 59.66, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 32.26, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 384.656667, 391.140561, 387.323244, 372.011908 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 394.2, "trend_reference": 357.403528, "distance_from_trend": 0.102955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 406.313501, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029813, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.190771, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.17495, "excess_performance": 0.049326, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102955, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05792, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029813, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051021, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.021908, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.17495, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.163254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5596644, "relative_activity": 0.70815, "balance": 1.163254, "dry_up": 0.948867, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072271, "annualized_volatility": 0.330989, "from_high_reference": -0.096369, "from_low_reference": 0.449151 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 357.403528, "fair_value_reference": 406.313501, "structural_low": 272.02131, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005686, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.039135, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.100378, "worst_return": -0.111782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003256, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.011881, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.082459, "worst_return": -0.199113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010293, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.01474, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125928, "worst_return": -0.146323, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.038941, "energy": 36.549463, "activity_lines": [ 397.533333, 398.993006, 381.562134, 366.801805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 377.68, "volume": 6460204, "typical_volume": 8430540.15, "trend": 355.72297, "fair_value": 407.095763, "relative_strength": 2.928098, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.976588, "energy": 29.502334, "activity_lines": [ 390.699333, 395.220044, 383.441021, 368.285889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 375.84, "volume": 5760844, "typical_volume": 8040482.15, "trend": 356.56374, "fair_value": 406.678977, "relative_strength": 1.058728, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.037148, "energy": 21.983563, "activity_lines": [ 383.973333, 391.355038, 384.711287, 369.583762 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 394.2, "volume": 5596644, "typical_volume": 7903185.55, "trend": 357.403528, "fair_value": 406.313501, "relative_strength": 2.190771, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.994709, "energy": 24.585842, "activity_lines": [ 384.656667, 391.140561, 387.323244, 372.011908 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }