{ "ticker": { "uuid": "299bc08c-c311-40bc-ba45-9e42e114694d", "symbol": "RENT", "name": "Rent the Runway Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.337, "architecture_energy": 38.455, "architecture_maturity": 76.152, "architecture_confidence": 68.148, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.89, "rotation_up": 27.04, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 62.74, "rotation_down": 41.06, "downward_expansion": 67.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.434667, 3.388818, 3.657595, 4.043022 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.68, "trend_reference": 4.745167, "distance_from_trend": -0.224474, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.105308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.59584, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -37.961335, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.459618, "excess_performance": -0.647072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.224474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.59584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012751, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080659, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.459618, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424708, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225020, "relative_activity": 0.516489, "balance": 0.424708, "dry_up": 0.600505, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147283, "annualized_volatility": 0.684843, "from_high_reference": -0.636723, "from_low_reference": 0.28 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.745167, "fair_value_reference": 9.105308, "structural_low": 2.875, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.113358, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.121222, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.751276, "worst_return": -0.367677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.098351, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.209651, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.946164, "worst_return": -0.61435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164733, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.061487, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.336386, "worst_return": -0.632735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.177979, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.486098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.148225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.244949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.308271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.159259, 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"relative_strength": -47.061325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.403697, "energy": 74.159711, "activity_lines": [ 3.194, 3.302182, 3.744476, 4.217935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.605, "volume": 267198, "typical_volume": 435861.6, "trend": 4.923167, "fair_value": 9.280436, "relative_strength": -36.493563, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.133333, "energy": 50.223982, "activity_lines": [ 3.313, 3.338182, 3.695333, 4.123226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.68, "volume": 225020, "typical_volume": 435672.8, "trend": 4.745167, "fair_value": 9.105308, "relative_strength": -37.961335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.337487, "energy": 38.454556, "activity_lines": [ 3.434667, 3.388818, 3.657595, 4.043022 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }